Sure, Whalen has been nursing a sprained ankle, but this is the post-season. She is tough, and she may be playing hurt, but the Sun cannot win if Whalen takes just six shots in a game. Or if she makes just two of them. Sure, Ashja Jones was double teamed all night. Sure, the Liberty packed the lane with superior height, and the Sun shot 4-22 from three point range. But Jones, who has a zone-breaking mid-range game, cannot shoot 4-13 and expect Connecticut to win the two consecutive games they need to keep the season alive.
For a period of time in June and July, the Sun looked like the class of the WNBA. Following a six-game July losing streak, they fell back to the pack. The Liberty, on the other hand, were more consistent, looking like a low-level playoff team throughout the season. These two ended as the two and three seeds in the East, and neither entered the playoffs looking like a champion. Each lost three of their last four games. Each has a star rehabbing an injury, and each has a deep bench that can be outstanding or mediocre without explanation.
In game one, the Liberty played with energy and the Sun looked lethargic, especially in the first quarter, when they lost the game by falling behind by 13. In the opening period, Connecticut made just four field goals, three by Tamika Whitmore, the one Sun leader who seemed to come to play on Friday night. Not that a lousy start is new for this team. They have often come out seemingly lost in the first quarter. The Liberty, on the other hand, were pumped up and ready to play at home. Shemeka Christon and Catherine Kraaveld each made two threes in the first stanza, as the Sun’s defensive effort matched their offense. In the final three quarters, the Sun actually were better by four points, but could not put together either the offensive power (shooting .375 for the game) or defensive stops they needed. Their miserable outside shooting allowed the taller Liberty to maintain a stifling zone, clogging the lane and negating Whalen’s signature drives to the hoop.
Tonight, the series moves to Connecticut, where the Sun hope their home court will be kinder (13-4), and their home crowd invigorating. Such is the WNBA: the “home team” must start on the road; but thus has it always been. The Liberty lost the season series 2-1, but one of the wins was at Mohegan Sun Arena. Last season, the Liberty lost two at Detroit after winning the first at home. The Sun must hold home court to advance, and the paper match-ups say they are the better team.
The matchups:
Point Guard: Lindsay Whalen vs. Lori Moore.
Whalen is simply the best point guard in the Eastern Conference, and possibly in the league. She is a dynamic scorer when needed, and is first in the league in assists per game with 5.4 per game. Whalen is just the second player in league history to average at least 10 points (14), five assists (5.4) and five rebounds (5.6) per game. She has a deep understanding of Coach Mike Thibault’s offense and has proven her ability to perform under pressure.
Moore is one of the league’s surprises, vastly improved since leaving Tennessee. She scores little, but makes few mistakes, and is a better defender than Whalen. She is not, however, a great point guard. Whalen is, if healthy. Although Moore outplayed Whalen in game one, this is still: Advantage--Connecticut.
Shooting Guard: Amber Holt vs. Essence Carson:
Holt is a rookie with great potential. She has the skills, but not the confidence, to score from anywhere on the court. She has had several outstanding performances, but also frequently has been a non-factor in games. Holt is a very good defender, and has a positive assist/turnover ratio.
Carson is an outstanding defender, but her rookie season has been something of a disappointment. She shoots poorly, has slightly more turnovers than assists, and has not rebounded as she did in college. Holt is simply the more versatile player. In game one, however, Holt was a non-factor, and Carson was quickly replaced by veteran Ashley Battle, who outplayed Holt easily. This week: Advantage--Even.
Small Forward: Kerry Gardin vs. Shemeka Christon.
Gardin is a remarkable story: Barely noticed at Virginia Tech, undrafted, she went to Europe for two years, and made the Sun as a free agent with her hustle, athleticism, and much improved scoring, particularly from beyond the arc, where she shoots .375. She grabs as many boards per minute as team leader Ashja Jones.
Christon, however, is one of the league’s best players--quick and long, she is a capable defender, an outstanding outside shooter (.409), a good rebounder, and moves well without the ball. In the first game, Gardin and Barbara Turner combined for eight points. Christon dominated at both ends of the floor, leading all scorers with 19 points. Huge advantage: New York.
Power forward: Ashja Jones vs. Catherine Kraaveld.
Jones is a multi-talented, ultra-consistent scorer and defender with MVP credentials, but little or no hype. Her 15-foot fade-away jumper is un-guardable, and she has become Connecticut’s best and most reliable scorer. She has always had the ability to defend taller players, and uses her strength to push her player beyond the comfort zone. Jones often will guard the opposing center.
While Jones has never become a media darling, Kraaveld has been all but invisible. Yet the unheralded Oregon grad has not only survived, but thrived in the league based on her outstanding basketball smarts and her versatility. At 6'4", Kraaveld can play inside (rarely back-to-the-basket), then step out and hit the three at a .376-pace. She is the best rebounder on either team, at 6.1 per game. For all her value, however, nobody has her on their MVP list. Of course, she outplayed the apparently distracted Jones, who must play like an All-Star if there is to be the expected Advantage: Connecticut.
Center: Tamika Whitmore vs. Janelle McCarville.
The most interesting match-up pits two tough, undersized centers against each other. McCarville has been hard on the Sun in the past, even when she was not performing well regularly. This year’s three match-ups with Whitmore, however, have been mostly a draw. Whitmore has scored 37 points and grabbed 12 rebounds, while McCarville has 30 points and 12 boards. In the Sun’s loss, however, Whitmore was held to just two points. Whitmore has three-point range, which she uses too often for a .315 shooter. McCarville bangs it out inside nearly all the time. There is no reason to believe the standoff between the two will be any different this time. Whitmore showed up in game one, single-handedly keeping the Sun from being completely humiliated. The winner of this series, however, will not be decided at this position. Advantage: Even.
Bench: Erin Phillips, Svetlana Abrosimova, Barbara Turner, Sandrine Gruda and Jamie Carey vs. Lisa Willis, Erlana Larkins, Leilani Mitchell and Erin Thorn.
It is pretty obvious that the experience is on the Connecticut bench. More important to the series, however, is the player who will not dress. Tiffany Jackson has not played since the Olympic break due to a stress fracture. Jackson’s athleticism can change momentum quickly. But New York’s leading rebounder per minute played will not be available in this series. Although Coach Patti Coyle has done a good job of mixing in her bench, the individual talent on the Connecticut side is superior. Gruda is still learning both the language and the league, but she has good low-post talent. Phillips is getting back in the groove, and substituted skillfully for Whalen during the final week. Carey never hurts the team, and is its best outside shooter. For New York, Willis has had good games, including one against the Sun, but she is not a consistent threat. Mitchell and Thorn are exclusively outside shooters. Advantage: Sun.
Coach: Mike Thibault vs. Patti Coyle.
All Thibault has done is take a team picked to finish sixth in the league after the departure of two All-Stars, and build a winning club that has played and beaten the best of the league (well, except the best, San Antonio), and finished just out of the top spot in the East. Thibault will be named Coach of the Year for the second time before game two tonight.
Coyle has her team just where everyone expected, but she, too, has been working with a young and inexperienced bunch. Coyle rarely gets any praise, but she has built a competitive team and has placed even her bench players in positions where they can succeed. Her defensive game plan – pack the paint and force the outside shot – worked in game one. If Connecticut continues to pass poorly and miss the open three, it will be Coyle who moves on. But coaches can only do so much in the playoffs, and the season still says: Slight advantage: Connecticut.
Bottom Line: The teams split their regular season series two-to-one in favor of the Sun. Each team beat the other on the road. While the advantages above line up in favor of the Sun, this is just a three-game series. The Sun ought to win on superior talent, but only if they can concentrate for the full 40 minutes and not sleep through a quarter as they did in losing on Friday. Whalen clearly is not 100%, while Christon is completely healthy. After the loss in New York, the Sun may not have enough to win two in a row, even at home. The odds now favor the Liberty. Slight Advantage: New York (in three games).
Jim Clark is a career prosecutor in the New Haven Connecticut State’s Attorney’s Office, and a professor at Quinnipiac University in Hamden, CT. He has tried 34 murder cases, and dozens of other felonies. He officiates high school volleyball and basketball, and recently completed The Nation’s Triathlon in Washington, D.C. to raise funds for the Leukemia & Lymphoma Society. He has written for Full Court Press since 1997.