How high can Candace lift Tennessee?

It‘s not the game everyone wanted, as Pat Summitt and Tara VanDerveer aren‘t likely to come to blows at midcourt, and Maya Moore and Candace Parker won‘t go head-to-head.

But it is the game that Stanford wanted, especially since the Cardinal already beat Tennessee this season. Of course, it did take overtime back in December, and the game was at Maples Pavilion, but a case could be made that the Cardinal are playing their best basketball right now. Then again, Rutgers was playing its best basketball heading into last year‘s title game, and Volunteer fans know how that worked out.

Of course, Parker was 100% healthy a year ago, and she‘s definitely not 100% now. But is she 80%? 90%? 70%? Where that percentage lies could well determine the outcome of the game, because a healthy Parker is a dominant Parker, and she could singlehandedly take over the game.

Stanford, on the other hand, relies on the smooth functioning of several moving parts, and if they all continue to click, the Cardinal are very difficult to guard.

No, it‘s not Tennessee-UConn -- but Tennessee-Stanford promises to be plenty fascinating in its own right.

Point guard: Shannon Bobbitt came up big last year in the championship game, and hit two clutch three-pointers in Sunday night’s squeaker over LSU. Rosalyn Gold-Onwude is another New Yorker, but Bobbitt was the boss back in the Big Apple, and she’s still the boss now. The only thing Gold-Onwude has on Bobbitt is about six inches in height, and that’s not going to be enough. If Gold-Onwude were a scoring threat, maybe she could take advantage, but she scored just 5.1 ppg and shoots 36.4%. Neither is a particularly dazzling ballhandler (both have a 1.2 assist/turnover ratio) but Bobbitt makes big plays when it matters most. Advantage: Tennessee.

Shooting guard: JJ Hones has never played better; Alexis Hornbuckle has never played worse -- well, except for the last minute of games. Hornbuckle couldn’t do anything in the regional finals before hitting an improbable three to beat the shot clock and making two key free throws, and did even less against LSU before following in a miss with 0.7 seconds left to win the game with her only basket. Hones, on the other hand, shot Maryland out of the tournament in the regional semis with a career-high 23 points, and then was rock steady against UConn (11 points, three of six three-pointers, six assists, one turnover). That said, Hornbuckle is still a surefire top ten pick in the WNBA draft and Hones is still considered a too-slow kid from Oregon who will struggle with more athletic competition. If you go off the past few games, Hones is the call in this one; if you go off the whole career, Hornbuckle is the answer. As a history major, I have to go advantage: Tennessee.

Small forward: Alberta Auguste got the surprise start Sunday, and since she came through with 10 points (including a huge 12-footer with 51.5 seconds remaining), look for her on Tuesday as well. She also matches up much better with Candice Wiggins than Angie Bjorklund, though it’s possible Summitt will shift Hornbuckle onto the Stanford star. Whoever it is had better be ready to come to work, because Wiggins can go left or right, and has quick trigger with the long three. She also defends, rebounds and leads, and will need to have a big game for the Cardinal to win this game. Expect it -- advantage: Stanford.

Power forward: Candace Parker usually makes about a third of her shots with her left hand, but Sunday, she made only one shot from the sinister side. That made her a one-handed, right-handed player, and 6-6 Sylvia Fowles took advantage, forcing her into six of 27 shooting -- as apparently the bad left arm also hampered Parker’s jump shot and Fowles didn’t even bother to guard her at the free-throw line. But the situation will be much different against Stanford, even if Parker still can’t use her left arm normally. Kayla Pedersen will draw the assignment, just as she did when the Cardinal beat the Volunteers back in December -- but Parker finished with 25 points on 11 of 21 shooting. Parker doesn’t have to worry about Pedersen blocking her shots as Fowles did, and assuming she didn’t suffer any setbacks Sunday, she should be at least slightly more effective Tuesday. Pedersen can’t be discounted, however, as she has played brilliantly in postseason, shooting well and never blinking under pressure. Still, Parker is one of the great players of her time, and maybe all-time, so 100% or 80%, advantage: Tennessee.

Center: Geez, did Jayne Appel key Doris Burke’s car or something? The ESPN analyst was all over Appel, calling her out of shape and saying UConn should attack her on every possession. Appel, though, wound up with 32 minutes of solid if not outstanding play (15 points, 10 rebounds, four assists) to cut off Burke’s tirade midway through the second half. Nicky Anosike, meanwhile, played poorly against LSU, including missing a wideopen layup with two seconds left that should have won the game. Luckily for her, the Tigers forgot to protect the weakside block and Hornbuckle’s follow shot earned the Volunteers the win. Anosike, though, should be able to bang with Appel in the paint, and though she probably won’t score as many points, she will need to get as many rebounds while staying out of foul trouble. Of course, if she can get double figures, or draw four fouls from Appel, so much the better. Nonetheless, Appel has scored more, rebounded more and shot better than Anosike all season. Advantage: Stanford.

Bench: Rotations get short this time of year, and if Stanford plays more than seven, or Tennessee more than eight, it’s a blowout. The Cardinal rely on slightly built 6-1 junior Jillian Harmon to back up Appel and Pedersen, which is why it’s so critical for that pair to stay out of foul trouble -- even though Harmon made some big plays Sunday. She was on the court for 15 minutes, and if Tara VanDerveer has to play her any more than that, it will be bad news for Stanford. Jeanette Pohlen is only a freshman, and not really a guard, but she’s the backcourt backup for the Cardinal. Pohlen’s a very good young player, but again, if she has to play more than 15 minutes, it won’t be a good sign for Stanford. Angie Bjorklund and Vicki Baugh are also freshmen, but Bjorklund started 30 games for the Volunteers and is a three-point ace. She hasn’t responded well to the pressure of the tournament, however, and Baugh too hasn’t shone in the postseason spotlight. Alex Fuller may also get some minutes, but if either of these teams has to rely on the bench to win, it’s in trouble. Advantage: even.

Coaching: As usual at this point in the season, the coaches may make the wrong choices now and again, but it won’t be because they’re just guessing. Pat Summitt and Tara VanDerveer both have been there, done that, bought the t-shirt and got on the mailing list. But even when two grandmasters face off, someone has to make a wrong move eventually. Advantage: even.

Offense: Candice Wiggins took 30.1% of Stanford’s shots in the semi; Candace Parker took 39.1% of Tennessee’s. For the season, Wiggins was at 24.8%; Parker 22.9%. For Tennessee to play at its best, Parker needs to be closer to her season numbers than her LSU total -- which in part means that her teammates have to be more aggressive. The Volunteers have a tendency to stand around and watch CP3 work her magic, and even though she will need to score big for Tennessee to win, the rest of the favorites are going to have to do their part. If that doesn’t happen, it will be easier for VanDerveer and the Cardinal staff to game plan a national title. On the other hand, Stanford’s balance creates problems for opposing defenses. Wiggins must be accounted for, inside and outside, and if Appel gets going, she can easily put up 25. As long as Hones and/or Pedersen are making outside shots, Stanford’s balance is the reason the Cardinal has been putting up such big numbers (thanks in great part to Appel‘s superb passing from the block). But if both youngsters falter -- and that’s happened -- Stanford too becomes easy to defend. Off recent history, however, advantage: Stanford.

Defense: If Candace Parker were devoted to defense and healthy, Tennessee’s superior athleticism would translate into a defensive advantage. But Parker’s career-long indifference to stopping the opposition, and her understandable reluctance to endure stabbing pain (and a potential game-ending injury) by using her left arm for anything more than adjusting her uniform, means that the Volunteers aren’t going to excel. Shannon Bobbitt is tiny, and Nicky Anosike foul-prone, so Stanford’s slow-but-steady efforts when the ball is not in the Cardinals’ hands give them the edge. Advantage: Stanford.

Intangibles: What’s happened prior to Tuesday doesn’t mean much now. Sure, Stanford’s been playing great on the offensive end, and the Volunteers have looked like the seventh grade B team -- but Tennessee is the defending champion, and will still enter the game with complete confidence that somehow, some way, the title will belong to the Volunteers. And though Stanford should be playing with calm confidence after its steady wins over Maryland and Connecticut, this is still the national championship game, and five of the seven Stanford rotation players are freshmen or sophomores. The rim will get a little smaller for Hones and Pedersen, and that could well be the difference. Advantage: Tennessee.

In conclusion: The category breakdown is dead even, and picking a winner in this one is further complicated by the unknown state of Parker’s shoulder. If she’s a little bit better Tuesday than Sunday, that might tip the scales one way; if she’s a little bit worse, it might tip them the other. But even though Wiggins is a wonderful talent, Parker is still the best player on the floor and even this early in her career, one of the best in the world. When the big plays need to be made, look for Parker to make them. Tennessee wins close and Tennessee wins ugly, but Tennessee wins.