UConn, Rutgers whine their way to Greensboro

Greensboro is a region with two very unhappy top seeds: UConn and Rutgers.

The Big East rivals were tapped as the top two seeds despite playing each other twice in the regular season -- including UConn's only loss. Once again, the selection committee favored geography (and ticket sales) over the S-curve, because Texas A&M should have been the opponent overall #1 UConn received.

But at this point, that doesn’t matter. Both top seeds in this region could face an interesting challenge from the #4 seed (Virginia) and #3 seed (Cal). Let's take a look at how the region breaks down:

Connecticut (1) vs Cornell (16)

When and where: Bridgeport, Sunday March 23, 7 p.m.(ESPN2)

How they got here: The Huskies have held the #1 ranking in the country for much of the year. Rutgers isn't the only familiar opponent in their bracket, as the Huskies stomped both #4 Virginia and #5 Old Dominion earlier in the year. UConn is 16-1 against the field, including wins over top seed UNC and #2 seeds Rutgers and LSU. The Huskies won the Big East regular season by dominating Rutgers in a rematch and then fought off a determined Louisville squad in the Big East tournament final. There's no question that they deserve their top seed.

Cornell had to have a good bit of luck in getting to the tournament for the first time ever. After losing to Harvard and falling out of a first-place tie, the Big Red wound up in a three-way tie with the Crimson and Dartmouth, and won the coin flip for a bye. That bye helped them crush the Big Green in a playoff, and propelled them to the tournament. The only other tournament team they played was Bucknell, whom they defeated.

The stars: The Huskies are jam-packed with star power, featuring superstar frosh Maya Moore (18 ppg, seven rpg). The best coaching move Geno Auriemma made this year was getting out of her way and letting her dominate. The only question about her game coming into this season was her long range shooting -- and her 44% mark from three has certainly answered that. Tina Charles anchors the post for UConn (15 ppg, nine rpg), and she's the team's most solid, dependable player. There's nothing fancy about her game; she uses her size, strength and agility to dominate down low. Renee Montgomery (14 ppg) is a scoring point who's become a dangerous threat in her own right, both from long range and off the dribble. She leads the team in assists.

For the Big Red, the post tandem of Jeomi Meduka and Moina Snyder are the focus of the offense. Meduka averages 14 ppg and eight rpg, while Frenchwoman Snyder puts up nine and six. Gretchen Gregg is the team's sharpshooter, shooting 44% from three and getting nine ppg.

The styles: Cornell plays eight and there's a lot of scoring balance, with seven players averaging at least six ppg. While the goal of the offense is getting the ball to its post players, everyone else loves to shoot threes. As a team, the Big Red shoots 40% from beyond the arc. They played a slow, deliberate pace.

\ Key matchup: The battle in the post will pretty much determine how quickly this game gets ugly. UConn has the luxury of bringing in huge Brittany Hunter and Kaili McLaren in off the bench to help pound away at Cornell's small (no one taller than 6-2) front line.

Prediction:: Cornell doesn't have the size, strength or quickness to keep up with the Huskies. The Big Red’s only hope of keeping things close early on will be hitting some threes. Look for UConn to crush them inside, force them into turnovers, and extend their defense out to prevent the Big Red from getting good looks at the basket. Cornell will probably try to run some junk defenses to slow down Moore and limit Charles' touches, but UConn simply has too much talent to make this a game for more than four or five minutes.

Texas (8) vs Minnesota (9)

When and where: Bridgeport, Sunday, March 23, 9:30 p.m.

How they got here: Gail Goestenkors managed to get the Lady Longhorns back to the NCAA tournament after a year's absence with a makeshift lineup, but it took several late upsets of teams like Oklahoma and Baylor to do it. Nine of Texas' 12 losses came at the hands of RPI top 25 teams, but the Longhorns fought their way into the tourney on the strength of their four wins against RPI top-20 teams and three more against top-50 teams. Texas' resilience, often fighting back from big deficits, also had to impress the committee. The Gophers, on the other hand, were able to hang their hats on their early-season victory against Louisville. Their last significant win was on Jan. 24 against Ohio State.

The stars: Minnesota has some nice inside-outside balance. Guard Emily Fox is an excellent perimeter shooter, averaging 17 ppg on 41% shooting from three. She also gets to the foul line and distributes the ball. Leslie Knight and Ashley Ellis-Milan anchor the paint, averaging 14 and six and 10 and seven, respectively.

Texas is in the odd position of being most wing-oriented, depending on slashers because there's no true low-post presence, great shooters or reliable point guard. Mercurial wing Brittainey Raven leads the team with 15 ppg but has also had to play a bit of point guard. Six-four center Ashley Lindsey is Texas' sole post presence, averaging 11 and seven, while Carla Cortijo usually runs point, with 10 ppg and five apg.

The styles: Texas is at its best when the Horns are pressuring the ball, forcing steals (20 turnovers a game) and attacking the rim. Their game centers around the team's athleticism. Minnesota plays a slightly slower, more conservative game. Both teams like to get the ball inside whenever possible, but Minnesota has two players who can really stroke the three and they're not afraid to take that shot.

Key matchup: Ellis-Milan versus Lindsey is the most important matchup. Neither team is especially deep, and so whichever player can stay out of foul trouble and establish herself as a consistent offensive threat will likely win the game. The other key question is if Texas has a perimeter player who can step up and control Fox.

Prediction:: Texas has played a tougher schedule and is on a roll at the moment. Minnesota is better balanced at all positions, but Texas is quicker. The Longhorns often make unforced errors but play with a lot of energy, allowing them to play through mistakes. Minnesota is a mature group and will be difficult to make a comeback against if they fall behind. Ultimately, I think Texas' recent sharp play will give the Longhorns the slightest of edges, but I suspect this game will come down to the last minute of the game.

Virginia (4) vs UCSB (13)

When and where: Norfolk, Sunday, March 23, 9:30 p.m.

How they got here: The Hoos return to the NCAA tournament after a couple years' absence, thanks to a fourth-place finish in the ACC. While they weren't able to take out any of the ACC's Big Three, the fact that they beat sister midlevel league teams Florida State and Georgia Tech put them over the top. Combine that with solid wins against NCAA teams Texas and Minnesota out of conference, along with plenty of experience against top-five opponents, and you get a potentially dangerous team. The Gauchos are another program that's been to multiple NCAA tournament, but none since 2005. They dominated the Big West, dropping just one game in conference play and they avenged that loss (to Cal-Davis) in the conference tourney final. Their best regular season win was at home against Southern Cal, but they were shaky on the road.

The stars: The Hoos have a Big Three of the ACC's all-time assist leader Sharnee Zoll (eight ppg, six apg), rangy wing Monica Wright (18 ppg, five rpg) and powerful forward Lyndra Littles (16 ppg, six rpg). Wright is one of the most dynamic scorers in the ACC off the dribble, and she's improved the range on her jumper. Zoll is a consummate leader, while Littles can pound inside or hit jumpers.

The Gauchos play up to four guards, with wing Jessica Wilson leading the way (13 ppg, six rpg). Kat Suderman provides some balance in the post with 11 ppg and five rpg, while Sha'Rae Gibbons is the team's best playmaker with 3.5 apg in addition to 9.8 ppg.

The styles: Both teams like to run and have a variety of ways to score. With Zoll, Virginia has a player who can play at any pace. She can blaze down the court with the best of them, but also makes great decisions in halfcourt sets. The Hoos aren't afraid to run, nor are they afraid to get physical. The Gauchos really only have Suderman inside, so they will try to avoid getting into a knock-down, drag-out halfcourt affair.

Key matchup: Powerful Virginia center Aisha Mohammed versus Suderman. If the Gauchos have any chance of winning, it'll be because Suderman has a huge game. Mohammed has more than held her own against top competition all year, and if she shuts down Suderman, this game won't be close.

Prediction:: Everything's stacked in Virginia's favor. The Cavaliers are playing close to home, they're playing against a team without much size or power, and they've played against much tougher opponents. The Hoos have just enough depth to match UCSB, so foul trouble shouldn't have much of an effect on them. The cross-country trip, and the fact that the Gauchos haven't played well away from home, should result in a double-digit victory for Virginia.

Old Dominion (5) vs Liberty (12)

When and where: Norfolk, Sunday, March 23, 7 p.m.

How they got here: Different year, same result for the Monarchs: make that 17 consecutive NCAA tournaments. They dominated the CAA yet again, losing just one game to James Madison, which they avenged in the tourney. ODU played an incredibly difficult non-conference schedule, losing to the likes of UConn, Stanford, and Tennessee while beating Purdue, Vanderbilt, and Michigan State.

Liberty is also no stranger to the NCAA tournament either, returning after a year's absence. The Flames beat CAA school James Madison and tough Xavier, but did lose to ACC bottom-feeder Virginia Tech.

The stars: ODU has a lot of depth, but its double-figure scorers include senior guard TJ Jordan (13 ppg), forward Tiffany Green (11 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and wing Jessica Canady, who brings her 11 ppg and six rpg off the bench as a supersub.

Liberty has two healthy Frazee triplets: forwards Megan (18 ppg, six rpg) and Molly (eight ppg, five rpg), along with guard Courtney Watkins (nine ppg, four rpg).

The styles: ODU has incredible balance in terms of scoring, with five players averaging more than nine ppg. The team shoots a solid 35% from three, and has four players averaging more than six rpg. This team can score, and can go inside-out.

Liberty doesn't have a lot of quality size, but the Flames wear teams down with their fine depth. The team is built around the dynamic Megan Frazee, a player who can score on anyone, and a bunch of role players.

Key matchup: It's Green versus Megan Frazee. Green is an incredibly athletic forward with a nice vertical and shot-blocking ability. Frazee can shoot but likes to operate inside as well. If Green can contain Frazee, ODU will cruise. If Frazee goes off, it will be a very close game.

Prediction:: Liberty will bring its share of fans, but ODU rarely loses in the Constant Convocation Center. ODU's big-game experience will carry them to the win; Liberty has some solid talent, but much less quickness and size than the Lady Monarchs. Liberty also doesn't have a player who can stop Jordan, while their depth will ensure that Liberty won't be able to get them into foul trouble or tired. This game could be interesting for a while if Megan Frazee gets some help, but the Flames are up against too much here.

Rutgers (2) vs Robert Morris (15)

When and where: Des Moines, Saturday, March 22, 2:30 p.m.

How they got here: Rutgers played its usual brutal schedule and was actually in a position to win the Big East regular season outright, but couldn't beat UConn on its home floor. The Scarlet Knights beat LSU, Maryland, Cal, Notre Dame, UConn and Louisville, and lost a controversial game against Tennessee. They also had tight losses against Duke, Stanford and Louisville, who upset them in the Big East tournament. Rutgers played three #1 seeds overall and they're ready for anyone.

The Colonials started off the season 6-9, losing to the likes of Virginia Tech, Nebraska and Florida, but they've since ripped off 17 straight wins.

The stars: Rutgers is packed with future WNBA picks, led by Epiphanny Prince (14 ppg and five rpg). Matee Ajavon is a mercurial guard who can shoot a team out of a game but is deadly when she gets hot, averaging 12 ppg and five apg. Forward Essence Carson is the leader of the team's defense and an all-around star, putting up 10 ppg and 5 rpg.

For RMU, guard Sade Logan is a superb player who can score against anyone, averaging 25 ppg. Forward Chinita Nesbitt is a tough forward who plays a lot in the post, averaging 15 ppg and nine rpg. Guard Psyche Butler is one of many role players on the squad, averaging nine ppg and six rpg.

The styles: Rutgers plays a grinding, halfcourt style predicated on defensive pressure. Their offense is best described as "organized chaos", with its guards frequently getting isolation plays. Robert Morris is a much more up-tempo squad built around getting Logan the ball early and often.

Key matchup: Carson versus Logan. Logan has the ability to keep RMU in the game all by herself. She shoots 43% from three and is quite comfortable shooting off the dribble. If she gets hot, this could be a very interesting game. It'll be up to defensive ace Carson to shadow her and keep her under control.

Prediction:: This game could be a lot closer than expected. Rutgers is frequently prone to scoring droughts, and a player like Logan could make things uncomfortable for the favorites if she gets hot. Neither team has a geographic advantage either. If Rutgers can get center Kia Vaughn going, then the Scarlet Knights will cruise. If they try to match Logan shot for shot, then they could struggle. I don't think this game will be a blowout, but Rutgers' overall depth and balance will make the difference.

Iowa State (7) vs Georgia Tech (10)

When and where: Des Moines, Saturday, March 22, noon

How they got here: The Cyclones emerged out of the carnage of the Big 12 and wound up with a favorable seed and location. They got it done on the floor, beating Kansas State and Oklahoma State, and lost to tournament champ Texas A&M.

The Jackets won 22 games against no one in particular (other than Florida State), though that was a school-record. They have played teams like Virginia and Maryland tough but simply couldn't break through.

The stars: The Cyclones' best player is Alison Lacey, who put up 14.5 ppg, four rpg and four apg). Guard Heather Ezell had a great Big 12 tournament and averaged nine ppg. Center Jocelyn Anderson is a steady defensive presence, averaging seven ppg, five rpg and two bpg). The quick Jackets feature undersized post Janie Mitchell (17 ppg, six rpg), shooter Chioma Nnamaka (15 ppg) and frosh wing sensation Alex Montgomery (17 ppg).

The styles: Tech loves to run in order to take advantage of its tremendous team speed, but they are often fairly conservative on defense, playing a lot of zone.

Iowa State likes a slower game and will force Georgia Tech to shoot jump shots. The Cyclones will live and die by the three-point shot.

Key matchup: Anderson versus Mitchell. Georgia Tech doesn't have any quality size. If ISU can get the ball to Anderson in good scoring position, she'll have a huge advantage. Mitchell often outfights bigger players, but she can be stymied by long, tall players.

Prediction:: ISU has the geographic advantage and superior size. Tech has more varied accomplished scorers and a better starting five. Neither team is that deep. This game will go down to the wire, but I suspect Tech's rebounding prowess will help them win by a basket or two.

California (3) vs San Diego (14)

When and where: Stanford, Saturday March 22, 4:30 p.m.

How they got here: Cal put up a mighty effort against Stanford for the Pac-10 title this year, but came up short. The Bears will be rewarded by getting to play close to home, even if it is on the home floor of their arch-rivals. They had some wins against solid programs like Vanderbilt and Arizona State (three times), but lost against top-ten teams Stanford and Rutgers.

The Toreros earned a stirring early-season win against UCLA, but struggled in the WCC, losing five games in a row during one stretch. They shook off those woes and got it together in the WCC tourney, knocking off Gonzaga (a team that had swept them in the regular season) for the title.

The stars: For Cal, the Big Three of posts Devanei Hampton (14 ppg, eight rpg), Ashley Walker (15 ppg, nine rpg) and guard Alexis Gray-Lawson (12 ppg, 40% threes) account for two-thirds of the team's offense. The Toreros counter with shotblocking 6-5 center Amber Sprague (16 ppg, nine rpg), playmaker Amanda Rego (10 ppg, 8.5 apg), and forward Kiva Herman (12 ppg, four rpg).

The styles: Neither team loves to run-and-gun, both averaging in the 60s. Both rely on dominating in the halfcourt with their post games and balance from their shooters. The main difference between the two teams is that Cal has more shooters and more post players.

Key matchup: Cal guard Natasha Vital versus Rego. Rego is a dominant player who can beat an opponent in any number of ways. If Vital can contain her, prevent her from setting up her teammates and force her to take jumpshots, then Cal will win handily. For San Diego, it's truly a case of "cut off the head and the body dies" -- if Rego is held in check, then the rest of her team isn't capable of taking over a game.

Prediction:: Cal is better balanced and has more options in general. San Diego will be vulnerable to foul trouble given its lack of depth. Throw in the fan support the Bears should get, and the Bears should pull away in the second half.

George Washington (6) vs Auburn (11)

When and where: Stanford, Saturday March 22, 2 p.m.

How they got here: GWU had a typically solid season, knocking off the likes of Virginia, Texas A&M and squeezing out a tight road win against the Auburn Tigers. The Colonials were surprisingly knocked off in the A-10 semifinals by Xavier and lost several road games to teams they really should have handled.

The Tigers lost 11 games but broke into the tourney thanks to their wins over Ohio State, Arizona State Georgia, and three wins over Arkansas. Their only real bad losses were on the road against Florida and Ole Miss.

The stars: GWU is led by the tough senior backcourt of point guard Kimberly Beck (13 ppg, 6.1 apg, 38% three) and Sarah-Jo Lawrence (13 ppg, five rpg, four apg). Beck is especially efficient with the ball and a tough defender to boot. In the paint, 6-4 Jessica Adair leads the team with 15 ppg and six rpg.

For the Tiger, 6-4 guard DeWanna Bonner is one of the more unorthodox players in the country, averaging 18 ppg and 10 rpg. Guards Sherell Hobbs (13 ppg, six rpg) and Alli Smalley (11 ppg) round out this very perimeter-oriented team.

The styles: GWU can run, but generally prefers to run a more patterned offense with lots of high screens. They are careful with the ball and don't make a lot of mistakes, but rarely overwhelm opponents. Auburn lost guard Whitney Boddie early in the year and the Tigers had trouble adjusting to her absence. Auburn is all about its guards, starting as many as four of them. The rail-thin Bonner is a tough matchup, which helps a team that has no inside presence at all.

Key matchup: Adair versus Auburn's post defense. Auburn will have a tough time dealing with GWU's size and post production, especially if they opt to stay in man-to-man. Adair's defense could be even more important, especially if it means keeping Bonner away from the rim.

Prediction:: GWU is a very good team that probably isn't tough enough to beat higher seeds. However, Auburn is not the team that can exploit its weaknesses. The Tigers don't have the size, ballhandling or experience to knock off the Colonials.

Quick round two predictions

UConn over Texas: Too much Maya Moore, too much size for the Lady Longhorns.

Old Dominion over Virginia: This could be one of the most exciting second-round games. Virginia has more skilled size, but ODU's has a number of advantages in this game. Playing at home is the most obvious one, and the Constant Center will be packed with Lady Monarch fans ready to root their team on against a hated in-state rival. ODU has played an extremely tough schedule and certainly won't be impressed with UVa's ACC pedigree. ODU has a ton of NCAA tournament experience, something only Sharnee Zoll has for Virginia. Virginia has greatly improved this season, but has yet to come up with a truly signature win, and I'm not sure they'll be ready to get over the hump with the odds stacked against them.

Rutgers over Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech reminds me a bit of Rutgers, only with a lot less experience and fewer quality wins. If this game comes to pass, it will likely be one of the ugliest games in the tournament.

Cal over George Washington: Cal has too much size and balance for the Colonials, and will have the time-zone advantage.