FCP's Selection Monday projections

Here are five things to look for when the field for the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament is announced on Monday at 7 p.m. EDT on ESPN.

The number one seeds

A week ago there were three locks for the number one seeds: Connecticut, North Carolina and Tennessee. Four teams were vying for the final top spot: Maryland, LSU, Rutgers and Stanford.

• Maryland would have received the nod with an ACC tournament win and would have been in the mix with a run to the finals. But by losing to Duke in the semis, Maryland now seems relegated to a second seed.
• LSU went unbeaten in the SEC regular season and in any other year that would assure a one seed, but the SEC was way down and LSU lost to Middle Tennessee State, admittedly without Sylvia Fowles. An SEC tournament title would have put the Tigers on the top line, but the loss to Tennessee in the finals most likely makes them a two.
• Rutgers also could have claimed a number one seed with a strong performance in the Big East tournament, but the Scarlet Knights lost in their first game to Louisville, and now even if the committee wanted to give them credit for a win in their controversial finish at Tennessee, they are still a two seed.
• That leaves Stanford, a team that had one bad weekend in Southern California to begin the year and looked like a number two seed in the West regardless of what they did in the Pac-10 tournament. But as the other contenders fell, Stanford destroyed the competition in San Jose, winning each game by more than 20 point, so Stanford now looks to be the last number one. Remember, the Cardinal beat both Tennessee and Rutgers.

The biggest question for the number one seeds is who is considered the overall number two. Connecticut is the overall number one, and will play in Greensboro. The overall number two is either Tennessee, the number one RPI team, or North Carolina. That team will get a ticket to the New Orleans region, while number three will wind up in Oklahoma City.

LSU fans will be particularly interested in this, because if North Carolina is given the nod, the Tigers will have a short trip to the Big Easy.

The number two seeds

Just like the number one seeds, there were three locks to get the second seeds going into the conference tournaments. The last position was up for grabs, with Duke, California, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Baylor and Texas A&M all in position to make a case with a conference tournament victory. One by one they fell, however, and some fell hard enough that they may not even get a top four seed.

Right now the only team standing is Texas A&M, which has an eight-game winning streak to salvage what looked like a disappointing season until the past month. But the Aggies still have to get by Oklahoma State in the Big 12 final and a loss would throw the slot open. Can anybody say Louisville?

The bubble

Heading into the final weekend nearly all of the resumes have been completed. Of the 33 at-large berths, 28 have already been earned:

1. Arizona State
2. Baylor
3. California
4. DePaul
5. Duke
6. George Washington
7. Georgia
8. Georgia Tech
9. Iowa
10. Iowa State
11. Kansas State
12. Louisville
13. LSU
14. Maryland
15. Minnesota
16. Nebraska
17. Notre Dame
18. Ohio State
19. Oklahoma
20. Oklahoma State-Texas A&M loser
21. Pittsburgh
22. Rutgers
23. Syracuse
24. Texas
25. Utah
26. Vanderbilt
27. Virginia
28. West Virginia

That leaves up to 16 teams vying for four spots (four if Old Dominion doesn’t win the Colonial Athletic Association automatic bid), all but six having finished their season. Below are the bubble teams that have completed their season:

1. Auburn
2. Boston College
3. Florida State
4. Gonzaga
5. Kentucky
6. Michigan State
7. Middle Tennessee State
8. Temple
9. Texas–El Paso
10. Wyoming

Additionally six teams are still playing and if they are unable to win their conference tournament will fall onto the bubble:

1. Hartford
2. Illinois State
3. James Madison
4. Liberty
5. Texas Christian
6. Wisconsin–Green Bay

The favorites are Texas–El Paso, Wyoming, Michigan State, Temple and James Madison.

UTEP should be a lock, but the lack of a quality win leaves a little doubt. If there was a silver lining to their loss in the CUSA final, it was that SMU climbed into the RPI top 50, and that gave UTEP two top-50 wins.

Wyoming was coasting along ranked in the top 25 most of the year. The Cowgirls beat Kansas State and Iowa and were sailing toward a berth until they lost to San Diego State in the first round of the Mountain West tournament. With Utah also being upset, if TCU loses it is unlikely that the conference can get four bids. Wyoming may be ranked higher than TCU, but TCU finished a game ahead of Wyoming in the regular season and if TCU reaches the MWC final, the Horned Frogs may get the nod.

Michigan State should be in, but the ridiculous RPI makes the Spartans a bubble team. It all stems from the natural bias against the Big Ten because the conference plays 18 conference games. For good conferences, this makes their overall rating go down. Using non-conference games only the Big Ten RPI rating is .0248 higher than when conference games are included. That is the difference between being rated 52, Michigan State’s current rating, and being rated 31. But the real problem is not their rating but rather the rating of the other Big 10 teams. According to the RPI numbers, Michigan State has six losses to teams outside the top 50 which may keep it out. Other more accurate computer ratings have as few as two such losses.

Temple won the regular season in the Atlantic 10 and made the finals of the conference tournament. The Owls wound up 21-12 and finished strong, going 14-2 the last two months. They have two quality wins over Purdue and George Washington and no losses to teams outside of the top 64. Dawn Staley got the team going just in time, and while it is a squeaker, Temple gets the nod.

James Madison can still win its way in with a CAA tournament championship. The Dukes can also lose their way out if they lose in the semifinals. But with a finals’ loss to Old Dominion, JMU is the most bubblicious team in the nation, left to twist in the wind wondering if it can make the grade. The resume includes wins over Old Dominion and George Washington. Unfortunately the Dukes also lost to Clemson and Drexel, and twice lost to Virginia Commonwealth, their likely semifinal opponent. Avenging those losses and being competitive against ODU would be enough for me, but the Committee may disagree.

If any of those teams are passed over, the two most likely replacements are Auburn and Middle Tennessee State. Based on pure numbers Auburn has the stronger resume, but the problem is that the best part of their resume was early when Whitney Boddie was on the team. Since she left, Auburn is only a .500 team and not worthy of inclusion. Middle Tennessee State beat LSU, albeit without Sylvia Fowles, and Western Kentucky. Unfortunately the Lady Raiders also had a few bad losses, most notably to Florida International, so once again the competitive Sun Belt Conference will likely get just one bid. And it doesn’t help that last year Louisiana-Lafayette was let in and got blown out.

The S-curve versus geographical seeding

The S-curve concept of seeding says that once the teams are rated, the general rule is that the teams should be placed in four columns, representing each region. The number one seeds are listed on the top line in order, the second line is populated in reverse order so that region 1 gets teams 1 and 8, region 2 gets 2 and 7, region 3 gets 3 and 6, and region 4 gets 4 and 5. This process is continued throughout the seeding -- in each round the best team would play the worst team, assuming no upsets.

The term “S-curve” comes from the serpentine nature of the positioning which is in the shape of a continual S. This has never been done to its furthest degree because of other considerations, including that teams from the same conference should not play until the regional finals, the top three teams from a conference should not be placed in the same region, and teams that played in the regular season or in last year’s tournament should be discouraged from meeting in the first two rounds.

But the committee has moved farther away from the traditional S-curve concept. The principles and procedures for establishing the bracket state “The committee will assign each team to the most geographically compatible regional and first-/second-round site, by order of the s-curve. When multiple teams are a similar distance from a site, the team seeded higher on the s-curve will be assigned to the closest georaphical proximity site.”

Indeed this isn’t an S-curve, but rather a mere ranking of teams and a placement into the bracket based on geographical and conference considerations. As a result it is quite likely that the top number one seed and the top number two seed will both go to the same region. It is also likely that the last number 1 and last number 2 will wind up in the same region.

My rating of the top eight teams is:

1. Connecticut
2. North Carolina
3. Tennessee
4. Stanford
5. Maryland
6. LSU
7. Rutgers
8. Texas A&M

As the best number two seed, the committee would place Maryland in the “most geographically compatible regional” which is Greensboro, the same site as Connecticut. LSU would then be placed in New Orleans if Tennessee isn’t there. Rutgers would go to Oklahoma City, being more “geographically compatible” than Spokane. That would leave Texas A&M, or whoever the last number seed is, in Spokane.

Already 15 teams have qualified by winning their conference tournaments, and 16 more will be decided this weekend, including the Ivy League mini-tournament required because of a three-way tie for the regular season title. That leaves 33 at-large bids to be awarded, and as many as 45 teams that believe they have earned them.

Sleeper home teams

The first two rounds will be home games for some teams, regardless of seed. Purdue and Iowa State are both hosting and both are likely to be seeded somewhere between seven and 10, but will still play in their own gyms. That means that two one or two seeds will have to play road games.

Stanford, Maryland and LSU are also hosting and Connecticut is a de facto host at Fairfield. That means it is likely that Tennessee fans will head to Terre Haute for the first two rounds and North Carolina or Rutgers will probably wind up in Des Moines. If New Mexico wins the Mountain West, a 13 seed is likely, which would set up a first-round game at The Pit for one unsuspecting four seed. Watch out Oklahoma State or West Virginia.

There are plenty of stories that will play out Monday night, but they are all prelude to the tournament. The real excitement starts next Saturday and culminates April 8 in Tampa.