Does the RPI like the poll? Most of the time

Rankings are great, but that other acronym that begins with R becomes a lot more important as we head toward Selection Monday – so this week, we’ll compare the somewhat subjective rankings to the mathematical purity of RPI.

There’s not a great deal of difference this year, though some teams (Cal, for example) appear to be more attractive to the voters than the computers, and some (Louisville) have it the other way around.

Which will this year’s Selection Committee value more? We’ll find out Monday.

(Record through Monday) Points -- Last week's rank (first-place votes)

1. Connecticut (31-1) 773 -- 1 (30)
The Huskies are number two overall, but despite those injuries, the humans have them as an overwhelming number one. It’s expected the committee will agree with the wetware rather than the software on this one.

2. North Carolina (30-2) 742 – 2 (1)
The Tar Heels are third in RPI, but that one first-place vote is worth a digression. UNC lost to Connecticut, so how can the Heels be ranked higher? Especially since they have one more loss.

3. Tennessee (30-2) 714 – 3
As always, the computers love Tennessee (maybe they’re immune to the annoyance factor of ‘Rocky Top’). Then again, the Volunteers have played the toughest schedule in the country, and have only stumbled twice. Oh, and they too beat North Carolina.

4. Stanford (30-3) 666 – 7
Yes, that’s the number of the beast next to the Cardinal record, but there are doubts whether this beast is really worthy of the number-one seed that presumably goes along with the number-four ranking. For what it’s worth, the RPI says six – and the weakness of the Pac-10 makes it hard to disagree.

5. LSU (27-5) 641 – 6
The strength of schedule (SOS) is 20, and one of those five losses is to Middle Tennessee State, which couldn’t even win the powerhouse Sun Belt Conference. But the Tigers are awfully good, better than the computer’s ranking of eight.

6. Maryland (30-3) 630 -- 4
The Terrapins beat LSU head to head and have two fewer losses. Which is why the RPI has them fifth – and why the committee will probably have them there too.

7. Rutgers (24-6) 589 – 5
That’s two straight losses for the Scarlet Knights, but the computer sill has them fourth overall, and thus a number-one seed. Rutgers’ inconsistency, though, disqualifies them from the human point of view.

8. Baylor (24-5) 509 – 8
The Big 12 Tournament will tell the tale for the Bears, who haven’t been the same since Jhasmin Player got hurt. The RPI says 7, but that will change this week in Oklahoma City.

9. California (26-6) 496 – 9
Oregon pushed the Bears, Arizona State almost erased a late 16-point lead and Stanford gave the upstarts a serious whipping. The RPI noticed, giving Cal a 19 ranking – and it’s most likely the better evaluation has the Bears closer to 19 than nine.

10. Duke (23-9) 476 – 11
The Blue Devils momentarily quieted the baying hounds hunting Joanne McCallie with the win over Maryland. This number 10 ranking is echoed by the RPI, so a very respectable third seed seems very likely.

11. Oklahoma (21-7) 425 – 10
The polls closed before the Sooners crashed and burned against Missouri, but even so, the RPI says 12. Three straight losses, however, make that number more than a little shaky.

12. Texas A&M (23-7) 400 – 16
The Aggies’ hot streak has them moving up the charts, but the RPI also notes that the SOS is six. The computer thus spits out ‘Nine’, and a couple wins in the Big 12 tournament could result in a two seed.

13. Utah (27-3) 394 – 14
Does the committee need an excuse to treat the Utes like a redheaded stepchild? Never. But that 21st ranking by the computers will make it that much easier for Elaine Elliott to have lots to complain about. Again.

14. Old Dominion (26-4) 393 – 13
Here’s a mid-major the RPI likes: The Monarchs are 13th, and need to win the CAA Tournament only to get a better seed. But the committee is unlikely to give ODU a fourth seed, no matter what the computers calculate.

15. Kansas State (21-8) 342 -- 17
Before the loss to Iowa State, the ranking was 15 and the RPI was 16. Both will change, perhaps drastically.

16. George Washington (25-6) 274 – 12
Losing to Xavier was yet another inexplicable loss for the Colonials, who cling to a fourth seed if you believe the polls, but are the bottom sixth seed (24 overall) if you believe the RPI. Like Cal, GW is probably a better fit lower down.

17. Oklahoma State (23-6) 257 – 19
Beating Baylor impressed the voters more than the computers, which still question Kurt Budke’s scheduling (44th in SOS with games against three teams below 315 in RPI and five more lower than 200).

18. West Virginia (24-7) 231 – 18
The Mountaineers are a .500 team since Feb. 24, but that doesn’t seem to matter to RPI or rankings. The voters have West Virginia 18th, and the computers have the Mountaineers 20th.

19. Notre Dame (23-8) 228 – 15
Another .500 team down the stretch (3-3), the Irish still should not be discounted in the real tournament. Muffet McGraw is deadly then, and be advised the RPI says 14.

20. Vanderbilt (23-8) 189 – 22
Three of the eight losses are to Tennessee and one is to LSU. Then there’s Indiana State and Colorado, which is why the voters say 20. The computers grind out 17, which gives the Commodores hopes of a fourth seed.

21. Marist (31-2) 184 – 20

Despite an SOS of 145, the RPI says Marist is the 25th best team in all the land. It’s hard to disagree, as the last loss was on Dec. 12.

22. Louisville (24-8) 92 – NR

Angel McCoughtry is the real deal, and according to the computers, so are the Cardinals. The RPI has them 11th, which simple math suggests is a third seed. That won’t happen, but Louisville is better than 22nd in the nation.

23. Virginia (23-9) 67 – 25
Here’s another team to watch out for: The RPI has the Cavaliers at 15, given their SOS of 12. Since Thanksgiving, they’ve lost only at Duke, and to North Carolina, Maryland and UConn.

24. Georgia (22-9) 65 – 21
Some teams are always overrated, and the Bulldogs are one of them. Just because they always have those elite recruits doesn’t mean they’re a good team. The RPI says 33, and that’s a lot closer to reality than 24.

25. Texas-El Paso (27-3) 63 – 24

Despite all those concerns about UTEP’s weak schedule, the RPI loves wins – and has the Miners 18th, which pretty much assures them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. But will the seed be closer to five or seven?

Dropped out: #23 Ohio State (22-7) 132 – 22
The Pac-10 may be the worst BCS conference overall, but the Big 10 doesn’t have a team in the top 25 in the rankings, or in the top 25 in RPI. For that matter, the Big 10 doesn’t have a team in the top 35 in RPI, despite nine winning records out of 11.

Others receiving votes: Wyoming (24-5) 36; Ohio State 32; Liberty (26-3) 26; Hartford (24-5) 23; Pittsburgh (22-10) 21; DePaul (20-11) 19; Western Kentucky (25-7) 17; Wisconsin-Green Bay (25-4) 12; Chattanooga (29-3) 9; Nebraska (20-10) 9; Middle Tennessee (21-10) 8; TCU (20-10) 7; Iowa (21-10) 4; Southern Methodist (24-8) 4; Arizona State (21-10) 3; Xavier (24-8) 2; Purdue (18-14) 1; Syracuse (22-8) 1; Temple (21-12) 1.

Of all these teams, the computers like Pittsburgh the best (23), with Syracuse next (26th, but only one vote in the poll). Chattanooga (27) and Nebraska (28) also get some RPI love, as does Texas (29), which got zero votes from the coaches. The worst in RPI? Hartford at 56, with 23 votes (29th in the nation, according to the poll).

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The USA TODAY/ESPN Board of Coaches is made up of 31 head coaches at Division I institutions. All are members of the Women's Basketball Coaches Association. The board for the 2007-08 season: Agnus Berenato, Pittsburgh; Pam Borton, Minnesota; Brian Boyer, Arkansas State; Beth Burns, San Diego State; Debra Clark, Florida A&M; Beth Couture, Butler; Leslie Crane, Western Illinois; Dana Eikenberg, Southern Illinois; Tricia Fabbri, Quinnipiac; Sharon Fanning, Mississippi State; Brian Giorgis, Marist; Julie Goodenough, Charleston Southern; Kellie Harper, Western Carolina; Mary Hegarty, Long Beach State; Nate Kilbert, Mississippi Valley State; Melissa McFerrin, American; Kevin McGuff, Xavier; Tina Martin, Delaware; Curt Miller, Bowling Green; Dan Muscatell, Sacramento State; Paul Nixon, Columbia; Rick Reeves, Gardner-Webb; Lee Ann Riley, Stephen F. Austin; Jennifer Rizzotti, Hartford; Rhonda Rompola, Southern Methodist; Julie Rousseau, Pepperdine; Brady Sallee, Eastern Illinois; Cindy Stein, Missouri; LaVonda Wagner, Oregon State; Adrian Wiggins, Fresno State; Kay Yow, North Carolina State.