After all, coaches know that to assure a win, teams need to be good enough that a bad call or two won’t cost them the victory. In other words, if Rutgers is up 10, then it makes no difference whether the foul occurred before the clock ran out. But in a game in which neither team can decisively take command, then luck (bad calls, bad bounces, etc.) can be the determining factor.
That’s why the single-elimination nature of the NCAA Tournament is somewhat frustrating – though there really is no option, oftentimes the champion is decided as much by luck as the skill differential between the two teams.
(Record through Monday) Points -- Last week's rank (first-place
votes)
1. Tennessee (22-1) 769 – 2 (27)
After all the controversy, the Volunteers now host LSU and travel to Vanderbilt – no easy tasks even if Tennessee had had Monday off. But don’t expect a stumble: This is the best team in the country.
2. Connecticut (22-1) 734 -- 1 (3)
The trip to Pittsburgh on Sunday holds some peril, but as the 82-36 win over a not-bad Seton Hall team shows, the Huskies aren’t quite ready to crumble. It’s still a shame Pat Summitt cancelled the Tennessee game; that would be a wonderful treat.
3. North Carolina (22-2) 707 – 3
The visit to Georgia Tech was barely a speed bump in the Tar Heels’ run to postseason, but Virginia is going to be more of a test. And you know, UNC is due to have one of those games …
4. Rutgers (19-4) 669 – 7 (1)
The Scarlet Knights looked awfully good against the top two teams in the nation, and were thisclose to being number one themselves. The only game this week is at South Florida, so expect a bit of a letdown.
5. Maryland (25-2) 662 -- 4
Virginia made life hard for the Terrapins, who will have had nearly a week off before playing Boston College on Thursday. The trip to Duke Monday, though, will have a definite impact on who gets seeded where.
6. Stanford (22-3) 626 – 6
Arizona and Arizona State come to town this week, and if Charli Turner-Thorne’s Sun Devils have any hopes of making an impression on the Selection Committee, this is the time to do it. Beating Stanford at Stanford Saturday with first place at stake will mean more than even winning the sparsely attended, not particularly thrilling, Pac-10 tournament.
7. LSU (20-3) 583 – 8
Van Chancellor is having a lot more fun in the SEC now than he did back in the day with Ole Miss – when he didn’t have players like Sylvia Fowles and Quianna Chaney on his roster. Of course, the trip to Knoxville still isn’t something to look forward to.
8. Baylor (21-2) 567 – 6
The Bears couldn’t get it done at unpredictable Oklahoma State, but bounced back to thump once-powerful Texas Tech. The visit to Texas Wednesday could also prove problematic, as Baylor only beat the Horns by one in Waco.
9. California (21-3) 518 – 9
Cal scored just 11 points in the first half against Oregon State, but still won. They’ll have to do better against Arizona State, which will be primed for an upset Thursday at Haas Pavilion. After all, the Bears only have a one-game lead in the Pac-10.
10. Oklahoma (17-4) 498 – 10
Some say the SEC is the best conference. Consider: Oklahoma hosts Texas A&M, and then travels to Baylor. On a different note, Ashley Paris is starting to prove that she’s a really good player too – which is scary news for the rest of the Big 12, and the nation.
11. West Virginia (19-3) 475 – 11
Pittsburgh and DePaul are next, in the pretty darned good Big East, but the Mountaineers get both at home. And since West Virginia struggled to beat middling Providence, the home-court edge could prove crucial.
12. Duke (18-6) 411 – 12
The Blue Devils sputtered a bit before disposing of Boston College, but then hammered a collapsing Wake Forest team, 71-36. Clemson, even on the road and with Maryland looming Monday, shouldn’t be too much of a problem.
13. George Washington (19-4) 364 – 13
Did you know St. Bonaventure was 15-6 at one point? Of course, when you have the 215th weakest schedule in the nation, these things happen. And so do three-game losing streaks. The Colonials will add another loss Saturday.
14. Old Dominion (20-3) 359 – 14
George Mason (9-13) made it exciting for a while (losing by only 10) and William & Mary only went down by 15. It’s pretty clear the Monarchs are losing their mo – and who wouldn’t, in this nine-game stretch of CAA mediocrity?
15. Oklahoma State (19-3) 331 – 16
Beating Baylor anywhere and Nebraska in Lincoln are pretty impressive feats, and the Cowgirls did both in a six-day span. This week, the Big 12 schedule hits them with a trip to Texas Tech and Iowa State in Stillwater, so there’s no time to wallow in the good week.
16. Notre Dame (18-5) 283 – 17
A very nice home win over Pittsburgh moves the Irish up a spot, but the Saturday trip to Syracuse could be dangerous – especially since Notre Dame might get caught peeking ahead to Rutgers (Feb. 19).
17. Kansas State (16-6) 248 -- 18
At one point, the Wildcats were 5-5 – but the team now doesn’t resemble that group at all. Even so, playing at Iowa State is always tough, and the fact that Missouri has lost eight straight is a little scary – the Tigers really aren’t that bad, and are due to break out.
18. Pittsburgh (18-5) 223 – 15
When you’re crummy, a bunch of losses doesn’t hurt that much. But the Panthers have lost two of three, and have a trip to West Virginia and a visit from Connecticut up next. That would be four losses in five tries, and for a top 20 team, that stings.
19. Texas A&M (17-6) 195 – 20
Beating Texas was nice. Beating Oklahoma in Norman would be a message that the Aggies really are as good as everyone thought they would be. Of course, with a tough remaining schedule, a loss to the Sooners could be the start of something bad.
20. Utah (20-3) 151 – 23
From unjustifiably ignored to the top 20 in just two weeks – that’s what happens when the ranked teams are as vulnerable as they are this year. Then again, San Diego State and BYU could send the Utes right back out.
21. Wyoming (19-3) 126 – 22
Any win against New Mexico, even in a Lobos’ down year, is a good one. TCU (Wednesday’s opponent) is coming off a nice win at San Diego State, though, so the Cowgirls can’t relax – at least until they play Air Force Saturday.
22. Ohio State (18-6) 114 – 19
It must be a bylaw somewhere that a Big 10 team has to be in the top 25 – though this year, it’s hard to see why. In a 12-day span, the Buckeyes lost to Minnesota, Illinois and Purdue, none with an RPI higher than 43. Simply put, they don’t deserve to be here.
23. Syracuse (18-4) 100 – 24
A three-point home win over 13-10 Marquette moved the Orange up a spot, and since no one else really deserved the bump, it makes some kind of sense. A win over Notre Dame Saturday, though, would be much more impressive.
24. Georgia (17-7) 93 – 21
Georgia has lost four of the last five and seven of the last 11. The Bulldogs don’t deserve to be in the top 25, but will probably pick up a couple of wins this week and even move up in the rankings. There may be some talent here, but it isn’t playing particularly well.
25. Marist (23-2) 56 – NR
The Red Foxes slide into the 25th spot, and are riding a 13-game winning streak. Of course, the team with the highest RPI in that run was Fairfield (87), and the Stags aren’t exactly Baylor. Still, this gives Ohio State a quality win – the Buckeyes beat Marist on Nov. 11, by six, in Columbus. Maybe that’s why they’re still ranked.
Dropped out: No. 25 DePaul
The Blue Demons have lost three of four, and the killer in the group was the one to 12-11 South Florida. A win at West Virginia, though, could put DePaul back in the rankings’ mix, though.
Others receiving votes: Vanderbilt (18-6) 51; Texas-El Paso (19-2) 26; Liberty (21-2) 20; Hartford (18-4) 19; Arizona State (16-7) 17; Western Kentucky (18-6) 13; Virginia (18-6) 12; Georgia Tech (18-6) 10; Illinois State (19-3) 10; DePaul (16-7) 6; Minnesota (17-8) 6; Nebraska (17-7) 6; Texas (15-8) 5; Louisville (16-7) 4; Xavier (17-6) 3; Iowa (17-7) 2; Wisconsin-Green Bay (18-4) 2; Auburn (16-7) 1.
Vanderbilt has two bad losses (at 10-11 Indiana State and at 13-10 Colorado), but has beaten Georgia twice, and Duke. The Commodores deserve the Bulldogs’ spot – and UTEP (losses at 17-7 Nebraska and 16-6 Kansas State) deserves Ohio State’s. You can blame mid-major bias for UTEP’s exclusion, but Vandy’s defies common sense.
The USA TODAY/ESPN Board of Coaches is made up of 31 head coaches
at Division I institutions. All are members of the Women's Basketball
Coaches Association. The board for the 2007-08 season: Agnus
Berenato, Pittsburgh; Pam Borton, Minnesota; Brian Boyer, >Arkansas State; Beth Burns, San Diego State; Debra Clark, Florida A&M; Beth
Couture, Butler; Leslie Crane, Western Illinois; Dana Eikenberg,
Southern Illinois; Tricia Fabbri, Quinnipiac; Sharon Fanning,
Mississippi State; Brian Giorgis, Marist; Julie Goodenough,
Charleston Southern; Kellie Harper, Western Carolina; Mary Hegarty,
Long Beach State; Nate Kilbert, Mississippi Valley State; Melissa
McFerrin, American; Kevin McGuff, Xavier; Tina Martin, Delaware; Curt
Miller, Bowling Green; Dan Muscatell, Sacramento State; Paul Nixon,
Columbia; Rick Reeves, Gardner-Webb; Lee Ann Riley, Stephen F.
Austin; Jennifer Rizzotti, Hartford; Rhonda Rompola, Southern
Methodist; Julie Rousseau, Pepperdine; Brady Sallee, Eastern
Illinois; Cindy Stein, Missouri; LaVonda Wagner, Oregon State; Adrian
Wiggins, Fresno State; Kay Yow, North Carolina State.
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