The Big East's best battle for supremacy

With Rutgers’ two-point victory at home over previously undefeated UConn, the scramble in both the Big East and nationally becomes even more intense – and there’s just a month to go in the regular season.

After Rutgers laid 49 points on UConn in the second half of that game, the top four teams (UConn #1 nationally, Rutgers #7, West Virginia #11, Pittsburgh #15) in the league had just one loss apiece, while the next three (Notre Dame #17, Syracuse #24, DePaul #25) are fighting with each other to stay in the race.

The conference champion will almost certainly be decided by the rematch between the Huskies and Scarlet Knights on March 3. The bottom of the league, of course, is the bottom of the league, but still, the Big East has established itself as the nation’s premier conference. Seven Big East teams have spent most of 2008 in the top 25, with surprising Syracuse entering that elite group for the first time in school history.

Rutgers has been carried by sophomore Epiphanny Prince, who simply took over against UConn, scoring 33 in the win, 27 in the second half. Rutgers continues to play close games, as the Scarlet Knights are hobbled by Vivian Stringer’s determination to rein in her athletes and force them to minimize possessions. Against Connecticut, however, Rutgers pressed and ran, scoring 73 points, 13 more than its average, including 20 from the free throw line.

Sophomore Prince has been the star all year, but is ably supported by seniors Matee Ajavon and Essence Carson, each averaging double figures. Kia Vaughn has been a defensive and rebounding presence in the lane, but scores less than her talents might dictate.

After an injury sidelined outside shooter Brittney Ray, Rutgers is left with just eight active players, and a rotation that includes only six. Defense, as always, is the hallmark of this team, and the Scarlet Knights pulled out the “55" press, rarely employed this year, against the Huskies, yielding in 19 points off turnovers.

Rutgers looks like a possible Final Four team, but will need to get over its psychological inferiority complex against Tennessee, as it clearly has against Connecticut.

Has a team ever lost two (or three) starters to injury and still won a national championship? UConn could be the first. With shooting guard Mel Thomas and slashing forward Kalana Greene done for the year, and Brittany Hunter limited severely by her knee problems, Connecticut has been forced to adjust, with freshman Lorin Dixon taking over the point, and seven-time Big East freshman of the week and likely Freshman of the Year Maya Moore starting at the three instead of coming off the bench.

That bench is thin now, with backup point Ketia Swanier and a mix of inconsistent post players that includes “enigmatic” Charde Houston (she almost defines the word) and foul machine Kaili MacLaren. Then there is Hunter, a difference-maker who can only play on days when her surgically repaired knee is healthy.

The loss of Greene, the team’s best defensive stopper, clearly was felt in the Rutgers loss. But freeing Renee Montgomery to be a scorer has paid dividends, as she has averaged more than 15 points per game since Thomas went down.

Connecticut held on as the only undefeated D-I team for many weeks with a combination of great defense and balanced offense. Moore has no peer as a freshman, and is clearly one of the top four players in the conference, with a combination of inside strength and outside shooting (41.9% from beyond the arc). Her defense, like her court awareness, is very un-freshmanlike, and she has shown a toughness in close games that promises even greater feats to come. But team-wide turnovers and tentativeness handed the victory to Rutgers, and those problems have been persistent concerns for Geno Auriemma all year. If unimproved, they could once again leave UConn stuck in the Regionals.

West Virginia, meanwhile, is the easy-to-overlook team with no real stars that simply manages to win. With senior center Olayinka Sanni the team’s tallest player at 6-2, the Mountaineers look like an easy mark. But the team plays hard-nosed defense, has quickness at every position, and defends its home court remarkably well. After Sanni, everyone is really a guard, and the four of them are something. LaQuita Owens and Meg Bulger (out with a tweaked knee the last two games) shoot better than 42% from outside, and Chakhia Cole is as strong and quick as nearly anyone trying to guard her.

This team plays with a relentless aggression that has long been coach Mike Carey’s trademark, and his teams regularly appear to over-achieve. Defensively, West Virginia hounds its opponents into bad shots, and holds teams to an average of 53 points while forcing nearly 20 turnovers a game – and the Mountaineers are one of few teams that has a more assists than turnovers (Rutgers has nearly fifty more turnovers; UConn has 128 more assists).

This team could go deep into the tournament. The remaining schedule includes Pitt twice and DePaul, but otherwise is against the league’s dregs.

We knew Pittsburgh would be good, but even now, with a 7-1 record, it is unclear how good. The schedule has been kind, but the Panthers face UConn onc, and West Virginia twice before the season ends. Shavonte Zellous is the league’s scoring leader, averaging 24.3 ppg, without shooting much from beyond the arc. She has scored 92 of her first 194 conference points from the free-throw line, where she shoots nearly 80%. Marcedes Walker provides consistent support in the paint, with 15 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. The senior has averaged a double-double in conference games for her career. Mallorie Winn is back for her fifth and final year (her second at Pitt), and is a solid floor leader from the point, as well as the only serious outside threat.

Pitt has four players averaging double-figure scoring in conference, with Xenia Stewart adding 10.8 ppg from the two-guard spot. Pitt counts on outscoring opponents, and is only an average defensive team. But out-scoring is something the Panthers do well, and they should finish the season as the fourth best team in the country’s best league.

Notre Dame has been missing from consideration for a few years, but has quietly returned to national recognition this season. It is hard to get excited about the long term, however, as the Irish have really defeated nobody they were not expected to beat.

Charel Allen has been the go-to player as a senior, but has not taken on any obvious leadership role. Sophomore guard Ashley Barlow continues to impress, and has a more determined mentality than her quicker teammate. Lindsay Shrader (back from injury) and freshman Devereaux Peters are a strong if not especially athletic duo of forwards, but Erica Williamson has not lived up to her freshman promise at center in her second season.

Notre Dame’s large frontcourt is effective until the opponent has quickness in the paint, then shows its limitations. Only Allen is a speedster, and the Irish often look plodding against quality competition.

Coach McGraw’s team plays ten deep, but the top four are responsible for most of the scoring. The team has fewer threes than UConn’s injured Mel Thomas, and only Barlow is a serious outside threat. This puts constant pressure on Allen to carry the offensive load, and usually she has responded. But the lack of interior speed and exterior shooting makes Notre Dame less than intimidating as tournament time approaches. The Irish face Pitt at home this weekend, but have road games at Syracuse, Rutgers and DePaul in a one-week stretch as the season moves to a close.

Syracuse is not just a surprise -- it is a shock. Presumptive coach of the year Quentin Hillsman plays ten, even though four players provide the lion’s share of the scoring and rebounding. Syracuse has benefited from outstanding performances from three first year players: freshmen Tasha Harris and Erica Morrow, and JC transfer Chandrea Jones.

Harris has run the point impressively, with 1.6 assists per turnover, and has shown poise beyond her age. Jones has been marvelous, proving that Shannon Bobbitt is not the only junior college player to contribute at the D-I level. Her 16.7 ppg lead the team, and she gathers an astonishing 8.1 rpg as a 5-9 forward. Rebounding is the team’s specialty, in fact, as Syracuse has a +10 rebound advantage on the season.

Sophomore Nicole Michael (13.7 ppg/8.1 rpg) is having a strong second season after a first team freshman campaign, and senior Fantasia Goodwin (13 ppg/9.1 rpg) has been rejuvenated by the talent around her.

Syracuse entered the rankings for the first time in school history last week at #24, a bit late for a 17-3 team that has lost only to #1 UConn, #3 North Carolina and #14 Pittsburgh. The close victory over #23 DePaul (69-66) was the final step to the Orange’s unaccustomed position among the nation’s elite, and into fourth place in the league. The remaining schedule is kind to Syracuse, with only games against Notre Dame, Rutgers and West Virginia as possible losses. With their confidence growing, the Oragewomen could find themselves among the league leaders by season’s end.

DePaul scores lots of points, and plays little defense. Thus it has been, and thus, apparently, it will remain. The Blue Demons’ Top 25 ranking is probably gone after Tuesday’s loss to 1-7 South Florida, and they have not shown an ability to compete with the top teams. A one-point win over Notre Dame on the road barely counters the USF loss.

Ten players participate in the run-and-gun offense, with guards Allie Quigley (18.9 ppg) and Diedre Naughton (14.8 ppg) leading the team. The Blue Demons shoot 35% as a team from beyond the arc, and four players are credible threats to hit the long ball. DePaul has made 46 more threes than its opponents.

The frontcourt, however, has been just adequate. Center Natasha Williams has used her 6-3 height to average 11.9 ppg and 7.5 rpg, but the forward tandem of China Threat and Erin Carney has been much less effective. Interior defense is certainly a concern.

With Notre Dame, Rutgers, Connecticut and West Virginia still to come, the Blue Demons are unlikely to regain the Top 25 this year. Expect a mid-pack finish in the league, and possibly a quick out in the postseason.

The rest of the league is its usual unexciting crowd, beating each other occasionally, but not a serious threat on most nights. Providence, if the Friars ever got healthy, has a group of young and talented players who rarely get to play together due to repeated injuries. The team’s future looks the best of this group, but probably not this year.

Everybody makes the Big East Tournament, however, and maybe one of the cellar-dwellers will pull off a first round win. Otherwise, even the NIT would be a surprise for the bottom of the Big East.

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Jim Clark is a career prosecutor in the New Haven Connecticut State’s Attorney’s Office. He has tried 34 murder cases, and dozens of other felonies. He officiates high school volleyball and basketball, and is a triathlete. He has written for Full Court Press since 1997.