FCP's preseason high school top 25

Notre Dame Academy or Long Beach Poly? Poly or NDA?

That’s the big preseason question this year, with a little East Coast (Notre Dame Academy) versus West Coast (Poly) flavor thrown in.

There’s not much question that the SoCal Jackrabbits have more raw talent: There might be 10 D1 players on the roster, including elite transfer Monique Oliver. But Poly graduated three D-1 players and will have to fit Oliver’s skills into an already existing framework.

Notre Dame Academy, on the other hand, doesn’t have the depth of the Jackrabbits, but the Dragons only lost one elite player, and return four starters.

So really it comes down to one school with a little more talent and a few more questions about how the team thing will work against a group that has the team aspect down but might not have quite as much depth. In the end, team trumped talent in this ranking, but really, it’s too close to call.

With any luck, the two will meet in the Nike TOC championship game in Phoenix on Dec. 22, but at this level, there are no guarantees. The margin for error is very slim, and both play brutal schedules.

Unlike most seasons, however, a single loss may not disqualify either of these teams from national title contention, even if a team with a lesser schedule (Cy-Fair of Texas, for example) goes unbeaten. Playing four ranked teams, say, and beating three of them counts for more in the end than never playing an opponent with more than a local reputation.

1. Notre Dame Academy (Middleburg VA) 29-1: The Dragons were thisclose to being number one last year, collapsing in the final minutes against eventual number one Collins Hill of Georgia. But since four starters return, including 6-4 post Azania Stewart and athletic wing Mia Nickson, there won’t be much dropoff. NDA also plays an incredibly tough schedule, and should collide with number two Long Beach Poly at the Nike TOC in Phoenix. It says here they’ll win, but I wouldn’t exactly bet the rent.

2. Long Beach Poly (Long Beach CA) 36-1: The arrival of 6-2 transfer Monique Oliver has most people picking the Jackrabbits for the top spot, but they did lose three D1 players -- and that’s a lot for any high school program to overcome. Jasmine Dixon and April Cook, though, are also elite players, there’s plenty of depth and the schedule includes more travel than a lot of Big West schools. If Poly goes unbeaten through what may be the toughest schedule since the heyday of Narbonne in the late ‘90s, they will have definitely earned the number-one ranking.

3. Regis Jesuit (Aurora CO) 26-2: The Raiders lost to two very good teams last year, but return four starters, including BCS-level players Mariah Williams, Mary Bokenkamp, Diana Rolniak and Keyah Shealey. Oh, and all four of those are juniors. Regis will play Notre Dame Academy Dec. 8, and also travel to New York City to play some of New York’s best. And next year might be even better.

4. Bishop Gorman (Las Vegas NV) 31-2: The Gaels are doing what needs to be done to be taken seriously: They are traveling to Chicago to play Whitney Young, and they are traveling to Phoenix to play in the Nike TOC with the other national powers. Of course, they have to win most of those games, but with 6-4 Ashley Gayle (Texas) and guard Darriel Gaynor (Oregon), they should at least hold their own.

5. St. Paul Central (St. Paul MN) 32-0: The unbeaten Minutemen ring up big numbers every night -- even though they had to stall to keep from scoring 100 points because if they broke triple-digits, they got in trouble with the administration -- but they played no one outside the state due to travel restrictions. This year, they’re bringing in Poly, and players like Theaira Taylor, Kiara Buford and Georgieda Jones will have that one chance to prove they belong in the top five.

6. Mount Notre Dame (Cincinnati OH) 23-4: The Cougars return all five starters from a very good team – and two of those four losses were in Florida and a third was in Pickerington, where home cooking may have had something to do with all three defeats. But with 6-3 soph Kendall Hackney leading the way, Mount Notre Dame should be the best in Ohio, and one of the best in the nation no matter where they play.

7. Cy-Fair (Houston TX) 39-1: The Ogwumike sisters lead a tremendously talented team, but the Bobcats will not venture out of state. It may not be fair, but teams that don’t travel, or figure out a way to play other elite schools, will not get the preseason credit they may feel they deserve.

8. Webb School (Knoxville TN) 27-2: Glory Johnson is one of the best players in the nation, and she’ll lead this 400-student school in its chase for a second straight 2A title. The Spartans lost only to Cleveland and Shelbyville last season, both early in the year, and with Jessica Goswitz to run the show, may not stumble at all this season. The big test, though, will be at the Naple Daily News tournament in Florida.

9. Sequoyah (Tahlequah OK) 27-0: One of the great stories of the past few years, this tiny school (360 students) run by the Cherokee nation has gone 80-4 the last three years and is riding a 39-game winning streak. And though no player is taller than 5-10, the Indians play stifling defense and are sparked offensively by 5-3 Angel Robinson. That winning streak, however, will be threatened by a much-upgraded schedule, including a trip to the Nike TOC.

10. Southridge (Beaverton OR) 25-4: Two Pac-10-bound seniors and another top shelf ‘08 player put the Skyhawks back in the national mix. Michelle Jenkins (USC) is an athletic, versatile 6-3 post and freshman Tiara Prince could have an immediate impact. Southridge is also hosting a tournament that will bring Long Beach Poly and Sacred Heart Cathedral of California, which should give the Skyhawks a chance to prove themselves on the national scene.

11. Sacred Heart Cathedral (San Francisco CA) 32-2: Four starters return from a state champion, including juniors Tiera Rogers and Kishawna Moore. The Irish are small, but play tremendous defense and have athleticism up and down the roster. They’ll be tested at the Southridge tournament, but can’t play in the Nike TOC because of a conflict with finals.

12. Detroit Country Day (Beverly Hills MI) 23-2: All five starters return, but they will return to play in the winter rather than the fall. After 10 years of legal maneuvering, Michigan’s girls’ basketball now joins the rest of the country in the winter, which means the Yellowjackets will finally get to play some out-of-state teams. This year, we’ll see if past claims about the quality of Michigan girls’ basketball were justified.

13. Ben Davis (Indianapolis IN) 18-5: Not often does an 18-5 team get ranked this high in preseason, but the Giants are loaded. They are not, however, Giants, with only one six-footer -- who happens to be a guard. Even more interesting, Ben Davis has no senior starters.

14. Murrah (Jackson MS) 37-2: Anna Jackson has been putting together powerhouses for 25 years, but this might be one of her best. Sadly, though, the Mustangs won’t play out of state, so expect LaSondra Barrett to lead Murrah to an unbeaten record against unspectacular competition. Even a perfect season won’t really prove how good this team actually is.

15. Murry Bergtraum (New York NY) 28-0: New York used to be the sole province of Christ the King. Then Murry Bergtraum took over. Now, however, the city and the state are as wide-open as they’ve ever been, with Christ the King down and Bergtraum hurt by graduation. But until somebody proves they’re better than the Blazers, Bergtraum gets the nod as the state’s best -- and thus one of the best in the country.

16. Eleanor Roosevelt (Greenbelt MD) 27-3: The area around Washington DC, both north and south, has included some of the nation’s best players, and teams, in recent years, and Notre Dame Academy is far from assured a free ride once the Dragons return after their December on the road. The Raiders are led by shooting guard Elashier Hall and have size and athleticism up and down the roster.

17. Iota (Iota LA) 43-0: It doesn’t matter who you’re playing: 43-0 is extremely impressive. And when you consider the school only has 400 students and still beat the large-school Louisiana champion Ellender twice last year, it’s even more amazing. This year, the Lady Dogs have all five starters back, but they don’t have much size and they don’t have the raw talent of most teams in this ranking. But you know, if you win 43 straight, you earn a lot of respect.

18. Whitney Young (Chicago IL) 30-4: D’Frantz Smart is five feet tall -- maybe -- but she’s still one of the best point guards in the country. Ashlee Anderson is also an elite player, and though the Dolphins only return three starters, they play a tough enough schedule (Bishop Gorman of Nevada and St. Joseph’s of Indiana) to deserve the preseason nod as Illinois’ best.

19. Buffalo Grove (Buffalo Grove IL) 34-2: There’s not much to choose between Buffalo Grove and Whitney Young in Illinois, but the Bison have four starters back to just three for Whitney Young. On the other hand, the Dolphins play a tougher schedule, which pushes them slightly ahead. But since Ellen Ayoub and twins Allison and Maggie Mocchi are all seniors, the Bison could easily ride their experience to a state title – and a higher ranking.

20. St. Joseph’s (St. Louis MO) 20-8: Yes, that’s a lot of losses, but the Angels’ four starters are joined by transfer point guard Patrice King, just the player they needed to complement the post tandem of 6-4 Meghan Grace and 6-3 Myrtie Reilly. That kind of size, especially coupled with solid guard play, is tough to counter at the high school level.

21. Winter Haven (Winter Haven FL) 27-3: Some people say Barron Collier is the class of Florida, but Winter Haven has Tiffany Hayes back -- and she was even better this past summer than she was when the Blue Devils won the state title.

22. Archbishop Carroll (Philadelphia PA) 23-7: There are a lot of very good teams in Philly, and due to depth (perhaps eight D1 players), we’ll go with the Patriots as the best. But don’t expect Carroll, or anyone else in the area, to go unbeaten, and we reserve the right to forget we made this prediction come March.

23. Ursuline Academy (Wilmington DE) 24-5: Elena Delle Donne is a great player, and the Raiders play a very tough schedule (the Nike TOC, the Diamond State Classic, Christ the King, Archbishop Carroll), so they deserve to start in the top 25. It may be hard for them to finish there, but with the 6-5 Delle Donne scoring from anywhere, and Kayla Miller running the show, expect them to be better than last year.

24. The Peddie School (Hightstown NJ) 17-9): One reason for those nine losses is that Lexy Gerson didn’t play last year. She’s back, along with 6-1 sophomore Haley Peters and 5-11 shooter Emily Hyncik, so look for big things from the Falcons at the West Coast Jamboree (the biggest tournament in the country) after Christmas.

25. Northside (Fort Smith AR) 28-2: That’s five state titles for Ricky Smith in 13 years, and with three starters back, the Bears can be expected to make a serious for number six. The last of the Kursh family (Marion) will graduate this year, but Smith has loads of young talent and lots of athletes. They’ll be tested early at their own TOC in Fort Smith, which brings together many of the Midwest’s best teams.