But Samford isn‘t even the favorite in the OVC, which features two other strong teams in Southeast Missouri and Murray State, and it may be that the conference is on the verge of pushing past the WAC and breaking into the top 15 leagues. Of course, to do that, the teams have to not only play BCS schools, but beat them as well -- and that‘s the next step for the OVC‘s elite.
1. Southeast Missouri (24-8, 16-4): Though 6-2 Missy Whitney‘s 13.2 ppg and 7.8 rpg would seem to be enough to allow the Redhawks to continue to dominate the boards (their +9.1 rpg was the best in the nation), the graduation of Lachelle Lyles and her incredible 17.0 rpg is going to hurt. Of course, Lyles is the only graduating starter from the two-time OVC champs, and with junior guards Sonya Daugherty and Tarina Nixon back, there‘s still plenty of talent. Second-year coach John Ishee will have to coax the same kind of defensive effort he got last year (which helped the Redhawks stay within six of Oklahoma in the first round of the NCAA tournament), but since only two players graduated who played more than 9.9 mpg, it‘s hard to pick against Southeast
Missouri.
2. Samford (18-13, 12-8): The Bulldogs are nothing if not ambitious: They open the season against LSU in the preseason WNIT. Then again, sixth-year coach Mike Morris has reason for confidence. He took over a floundering program and elevated it into one of the best in the OVC, and with three starters back, has a shot at unseating Southeast Missouri. Six-foot senior Alex Munday is the top returner (14.0 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 40.5% three-point shooting, 84.1% free-throw shooting), but Morris needs either some non-starters to get better or incoming
freshmen from strong high school programs to offer immediate help, especially as the Bulldogs will also play Alabama, Missouri and George Washington in preseason.
3. Murray State (21-10, 15-5): The good news for new coach Jody Adams is that four of the five starters from a very good team return; the bad news is that the best player, Joi Scott, was the one who graduated. But 6-5 Old Dominion transfer Angella Brown might be able to help in the middle, and guards Amber Guffey and Ashley N. Hayes (yes, there was an Ashley B. Hayes) are both quality players. They’re also good shooters, and that was the Racers’ trademark last season: They shot an incredible 44.8% from the field as a team and averaged 71.3 ppg. The preseason schedule isn’t all that challenging, so Adams should have time to adjust to her new team, and vice versa -- so expect the Racers to be in the thick of the OVC hunt again, with or without Joi Scott.
4. Eastern Illinois (10-19, 7-13): Take away a 1-9 midseason stretch, and the Panthers look a lot better -- and since four starters return, this should be the best season of Brady Sallee‘s three in Charleston. Of course, he‘s never won more than 10 games, but this is more and more his program. There‘s only one senior (non-starter Brittney Coleman) and junior Rachel Galligan is the leading returning scorer in the league (17.2 ppg). But even though Jessica Huffman averaged 16.9 ppg as a freshman, if Eastern Illinois is to improve, she must cut down her 170 turnovers (5.1 a game).
Tennessee Tech (12-18, 11-9): After a Jan. 2 22-point loss to Samford, the Golden Eagles were 2-11 -- but then first-year coach Amy Brown flicked the switch and Tennessee Tech went 10-5. The Golden Eagles did lose their last two (by one in overtime and by three to that same Samford team ) but they head into 2007-08 with momentum, and four returning starters. Unfortunately, the missing starter is Kendall Cavin, the leading scorer (14.2 ppg) and passer (2.4 apg). Tennessee Tech will also miss her 4.3 rpg, as the Golden Eagles biggest issue is on the boards. They are small, as Kristina Tyler is the only returner taller
than 5-11, and the lack of any shotblocking (46 for the season) made it too easy for opponents to score inside. To build on last year‘s strong finish, then, Tech needs to find a way to overcome its height limitations at both ends of the floor.
5. Morehead State (14-16, 13-7): Could this finally be the year? The Eagles have been in the OVC since 1948, and have never won a conference title. They did win the tournament in 1979, but haven’t finished higher than third since 2001-02. With only two starters back, there might not seem to be reasons for optimism, but new coach Mike Bradbury also has two transfers who could step right in: Afton Perry from Western Kentucky and Brittany Pittman from Middle Tennessee. Perry and Pittman are also the only two players taller than 6-0, and since leading rebounder (and scorer) LaKrisha Brown graduated, they will need to have an immediate impact, especially on the boards. Murray State also needs to replace point guard Stacey Strayer (2.5 assist/turnover ratio), but there are plenty of guards to choose from, though admittedly 2.5 A/TO ratios are hard to come by in the OVC -- or anywhere, for that matter.
6. UT Martin (17-14, 10-10): The Skyhawks made some strides in Tara Tansil’s third season, getting to .500 in conference and three games above overall -- both high-water marks for Tansil. With three starters back, including leading scorer (12.1 ppg) and rebounder (9.0 rpg) Phyllisha Mitchell, Tansil may be able to build on her success. Defensively, there appears to be no problem, but successful college teams have to score more than 59.5 ppg. The biggest problem was in ballhandling, as Martin turned the ball over 551 times and their opponents just 437 -- which offset a significant rebounding
advantage. If the turnover margin takes a turn for the better, the Skyhawks could rise even higher than this prediction.
7. Eastern Kentucky (12-18, 9-11): Larry Joe Inman has been coaching in the OVC for 27 years (466 wins) but the last two combined have been the worst. After a 7-20 record in 2005-06, the Colonels bounced back to 12-19 last season, but since EKU has won 22 or more games three times this century, that’s still a major disappointment. There’s hope this season, though, as the top three scorers return, and the team played well after a 5-11 start. On the other hand, this better be the year, as those top three scorers are all seniors, and the only three juniors are all JC transfers.
9. Austin Peay (10-20, 9-11): Carrie Daniels’ first year running the show at her alma mater didn’t go quite as well as she had hoped, and the Governors finished the year losing seven of their last eight. Leading scorer (10.0 ppg) and rebounder (7.0 rpg) Alicia Watson graduated, but Amber Bacon and Kellea Reeves are solid scorers -- and 6-1 West Virginia transfer Janay Armstrong could be a big help. Still, the glory days (four straight NCAA appearances from 2001-04) appear to be fading in the rear view mirror.
10. Tennessee State (7-22, 4-16): It’s not often that a seven-win season would be hailed as a great success, but since the Tigers were 0-27 in 2005-06, Tracee Wells’ third year was a significant step forward. With just one senior and three juniors on the roster, Wells is clearly pointing toward a better future in Nashville. One of those juniors, Obiageli Okafor, sparked last season’s turnaround with 14.2 ppg and 7.0 rpg, and another, Kendra Appling, ran the point and scored 12.8 ppg -- but Appling shot just 24.7% from three-point distance. Sadly, Appling’s low mark was better than the team’s 22.3%, and that is a major concern. So is team defense, as the Tigers allowed conference opponents to shoot 45.7%. If the upward arc is to continue, Tennessee State needs an immediate upgrade in both areas.
11. Jacksonville State (7-22, 4-16): It’s a cliché that returning everyone from a bad team isn’t necessarily good news, so does it mean, then, that losing four starters from a bad team isn’t bad news? The Gamecocks and second-year coach Becky Geyer are about to find out, as only 6-1 sophomore Jolie Efezokhae (11.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 46.4% shooting) started last year. The other three returners are all 5-10 or smaller, and combined for 10.1 ppg and 6.1 rpg in 43.5 mpg. That means there’s plenty of opportunity for newcomers to carve out a place in the rotation, and seven freshmen, plus 6-4 sophomore transfer Courtney Chesser, will provide the competition. That said, it’s a long way up for the Gamecocks, who lost their last six in 2006-07.