Stanford, as usual, should rule the Pac-10

Since the turn of the century, the center of women’s basketball has resided in the west. Los Angeles, Washington, Northern California and Arizona have all won championships. Five of the last seven titles have been won by teams in the region.

Unfortunately for the once mighty Pacific 10 conference, those championships have all been in the WNBA. It has been ten years since Stanford has made the Final Four, the last Pac-10 team to do so. Since then, Pac-10 teams have lost six times in the regional finals, including Arizona State’s 64-45 loss to eventual finalist Rutgers last year.

This season, the focus will be on the Northern California schools. Both Stanford and California have a reasonable chance of ending the decade-long drought, bolstered by the opportunity of playing the Western Regional in Sacramento. Arizona State also looks to be at or near the top of the Pac-10 and able to make a run deep into March. USC may also contend, but the loss of prize recruit Jackie Gemelos for the second consecutive year will make it difficult for the Trojans to enjoy an extended stay in postseason.

1. Stanford (29-5, 17-1): Tara VanDerveer begins her 22nd year as Stanford’s head coach with one of the most potent inside-outside duos in the nation in Candice Wiggins and Jayne Appel. Stanford should have no trouble extending its run of 20 consecutive NCAA tournaments, and is the favorite to take its 17th Pac-10 title. But for the season to be a success, the Cardinal will have to avoid the disappointment of an early exit in the NCAAs.

To do that, Wiggins will have to another superb season. She’s the best player in the conference and one of the five best in the country, averaging 16.9 ppg, 4.1 rpg and 3.2 apg, and making 44% of her three-point attempts. The 5-11 senior guard has been a second team All-American in each of her first three years and helped the U.S. to gold in two international competitions, the Under 21 championships and the Pan American Games.

Appel is the inside force for Stanford. The 6-4 sophomore center was a reserve last year behind Kristen Newlin, but was still the third leading scorer and rebounder for the Cardinal. She averaged 13.2 ppg and 7.5 rpg despite playing only 19.3 mpg. She also played her best against top competition, including a 23-point, five-block effort against Tennessee. With the graduation of both Newlin and Brooke Smith, Appel may be the key to the season for Stanford.

Of course, someone has to get her the ball, and JJ Hones was having a fine freshman season running the point for Stanford before suffering an ACL tear in the first minute of the team’s only Pac-10 loss (against California). Hones had 90 assists versus only 32 turnovers. but if she’s not ready, Rosalyn Gold-Onwude, who tore her ACL in the spring of 2006, should be able to step in.

Key non-conference games: Nov. 11 at Rutgers, Nov. 22 vs. Connecticut in the Virgin Islands, Dec. 22 against Tennessee at home.

2. California (23-9, 12-6): Joanne Boyle surprised most of the nation when she turned down her alma mater, Duke, and decided to stay at Berkeley. Boyle has built a powerhouse in her two years at Cal, thanks largely to inheriting one of the best recruiting classes ever garnered by a non-traditional power. Devanei Hampton, Ashley Walker and Alexis Gray-Lawson have been the mainstays of a team that has won 41 games over the past two seasons, the most in Cal history. And if the Golden Bears can return to the NCAA tourney, it will mark the first time that Cal has made three consecutive trips.

Hampton was the Pac-10 player of the year last season as the 6-3 junior center is one of the best offensive players in the post, averaging 16.6 ppg and 8.0 rpg. Her only weaknesses have been foul-related. As a freshman, she fouled out of seven games, and while she was able to reduce the DQs to only two as a sophomore, foul trouble often limited her playing time. She also gets fouled often, but her 54% free throw shooting has sometimes presented problems for the Bears late in close games.

Ashley Walker may have had an even better year than POY Hampton last season. The 6-1 junior forward actually averaged more points and rebounds than Hampton (17.3 and 8.7 respectively), but unlike Hampton, Walker was able to convert 77% of her 227 free throw attempts. With both Walker and Hampton on the floor, the Bears have as good a 1-2 inside scoring punch as any team in the nation.

Alexis Gray- Lawson returns this season from an ACL tear, which she suffered in Cal’s final game before Pac-10 conference play last year. If there was a silver lining to the injury, it was that Natasha Vital got valuable playing time as a freshman when she was pressed into duty running the point. Sophomore guard Lauren Greif got off to a torrid start as a three-point shooter last season but faded somewhat down the stretch.

Cal was dealt a blow when prize recruit Lenita Sanford was unable to qualify, so as a result reserve center Rama N’diaye may be the key to Cal’s success. The 6-5 sophomore from Senegal showed some promise, but often struggled with turnovers in her first season. Her ability to spell Walker and Hampton with quality minutes could be enough to lift Cal from a top 25 team to a top 10 team.

Key non-conference games: Nov. 25 at Baylor, Dec. 2 vs. Vanderbilt at home, Dec. 10 at Rutgers.

Arizona State (31-5, 16-2): Charli Turner-Thorne enters her 12th season at Arizona State coming off the Sun Devils best-ever season. The team topped 30 wins and made the Elite Eight for the first time in school history. The Sun Devils do not have the star power of either Stanford or Cal, but they make up for it with tremendous depth and one of the most productive benches in the country. No Sun Devil averaged as many as 26 mpg last year. and though the Sun Devils lose Emily Westerberg and Aubree Johnson, they still return eight players that averaged at least 10 mpg. And into the mix they add Sybil Dosty, a transfer who played two years at Tennessee before coming back to Arizona where she played in high school.

Briann January, a 5-8 junior guard, is the best returning player. She averaged 10.2 points, 4.0 assists and 2.1 steals per game last season. With her speed and quickness, January has been able to take over games, as she showed in the Pac-10 championship game against Stanford when she scored nine points in a 13-0 run in the final five minutes. She will team with Jill Noe and Regan Pariseau in the backcourt.

Noe was granted a sixth year of eligibility due to missing all of the 2003-04 and 2004-05 seasons with a torn ACL. In her freshman season, Noe averaged 12.6 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. Last season, her numbers were 8.9 and 4.9 respectively. Pariseau, a 5-5 senior, had a 2.3 assist/turnover ratio and was second on the Sun Devils with 25.4 mpg. January, Noe and Pariseau each had at least 100 assists last year. Junior Danielle Orsillo and sophomore Dymond Simon provide depth and scoring punch off the bench as each averaged over nine points per game. Junior Kate Englebrecht provided depth at the point with a 2.4 assist/turnover ratio in her 17 mpg.

The frontcourt is more of a question mark. Dosty, a 6-3 junior center, was a highly prized recruit out of Tucson in 2004, but never reached the heights expected for her at Rocky Top. She averaged fewer than three rebounds and three points per game in her two seasons for the Lady Vols. If she can regain her form and play at the level expected out of high school, the Sun Devils could make it back to the Elite Eight -- and even take another step forward.

The Sun Devils have another transfer, Lauren Lacey, a 6-3 junior forward from Minnesota. Kirsten Thompson, a 6-6 junior center, is their top returner. She averaged 7.3 points and 3.4 rebounds in only 14 mpg. Kayli Murphy, a 6-2 sophomore can also provide depth.

Key non-conference games: Nov. 11 at North Carolina, Nov. 22 vs. Oklahoma in Cancun, Dec. 20 vs. Texas at home.

4, USC (17-13, 10-8): Mark Trakh enters his fourth season at USC having restored credibility and respect to the once-proud program. Only a rash of injuries kept USC from returning to the NCAA tournament for the third straight season after missing the big dance for seven straight years. In 2006-07, Trakh will be looking to build an almost entirely new team, blending in three players that sat out last year with some freshmen who got unexpected playing time last year due to the rash of injuries, while trying to replace a senior class that included Eshaya Murphy, Jamie Funn, Jamie Hagiya and Chloe Kerr. And Trakh’s job got even tougher when super-recruit Jackie Gemelos reinjured her ACL and will miss her second straight season without even lacing up her sneakers once for USC.

But the cupboard is far from bare. Morghan Medlock had a solid freshman campaign last season as a 6-1 forward. She averaged 6.4 points and 4.3 rebounds while playing 19.5 minutes per game. Markisha Lea, a 6-1 senior center, returns from a broken arm suffered at the end of the 2005-06 campaign and a knee injury in the preseason last year. She will battle with 6-3 junior center Nadia Parker, who averaged 6.4 points and 4.1 rebounds in 14.1 minutes per game.

In the backcourt, Camille Lenoir returns from a hip injury that sidelined her last season. The 5-6 junior guard was one of the Trojans’ top players in 2005-6, averaging 12.7 ppg and 4.2 apg in her sophomore year. She is joined by Brynn Cameron, a 5-10 junior guard who redshirted last season due to the birth of her first child. They return to compete with Alison Jaskowiak and Hailey Dunham for playing time. Jaskowiak was granted a fifth year of eligibility due to a medical redshirt from her freshman year. She is a solid defender who started 21 games last season While Dunham is a 6-2 sophomore guard who started seven games last season.

If Lenoir can regain her form from two years ago and Trakh can find the chemistry to pull this team together, USC should be able to return to the NCAA tournament -- but without Gemelos it is hard to see the potential firepower to challenge for the Pac-10 championship.

Key non-conference game: Dec. 8 at Nebraska.

6. Washington (18-13, 11-7): After ten years, June Daugherty is out as the head coach of Washington. Daugherty won 172 games and led the Huskies into the NCAA five times, including an appearance in the Elite Eight in 2001. In her place, the Huskies have turned to first-time head coach Tia Jackson, most recently an assistant at Duke. Jackson does have Pac-10 roots, having been an assistant at Stanford and UCLA, and also has a solid core of players returning. The backcourt looks solid with returners Emily Florence and Dominique Banks. Florence, a 5-5 senior point guard, has started 80 consecutive games since her freshman year. She averaged 5.4 points, 3.9 assists and 2.2 steals per game last season, and despite her diminutive size, she also averaged 5.2 rebounds. Banks, a 5-8 senior guard, suffered stress fractures in both legs before the season last year that hampered her play throughout. As a sophomore, she started all but one game and averaged 7.2 points and 4.1 rebounds. Sophomore Sami Whitcomb and junior transfer (from San Diego) Michelle Augustavo should also get playing time.

Andrea Plouffe, 6-2 senior forward, is a solid but unspectacular force in the frontcourt. She averaged 10 ppg each of the last two years. Heidi McNeil and Laura McClellan also return, but in order to improve, the Huskies need 6-5 freshman Kali Bennett to live up to her billing. The Huskies also have a 6-5 freshman, Jess McCormack, who has played with the New Zealand national team.

Key non-conference games: Dec. 16 at home vs. Ohio State, Dec. 21 at home vs. Purdue.

7. UCLA (14-18, 7-11): Kathy Olivier begins her 15th season at the helm in Westwood with some questions to answer. Over the past two years, UCLA has had three players move on to success in the WNBA, Nikki Blue, Lisa Willis and Noelle Quinn, and many wonder how a team with that much talent (two top-five overall picks) has only made two trips to the NCAA since 2000. And perhaps more on point, if the Bruins have had only limited success with that talent, how will they fare without it?

Lindsey Pluimer is the leader of this year’s squad. The 6-4 senior forward has started 92 consecutive games and last year averaged 15.5 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. Chinyere Ibekwe is a solid post player who started every game last season as well, and the 6-4 junior center averaged 7.7 ppg and 6.6 rpg. Six-six sophomore Monique Alexander and 6-3 freshmen Candice Brown and Regina Rogers should give UCLA a formidable front line.

The backcourt is not as settled. Tierra Henderson, a 5-10 junior who started all but one game last season, will take one of the starting spots. Freshman Doreena Campbell from Virginia would seem to have the inside track at the other position.

The Bruins will provide difficult matchups for many teams this season due to their large and powerful frontcourt. But unless they can dramatically decrease their league-high 19.6 turnovers per game from last season, the Bruins will stay in the bottom half of the Pac 10.

The Bruins host both Maryland (Nov. 25) and Tennessee (Dec. 19).

8. Arizona (11-21, 4-14): Two years ago, Arizona women’s basketball was riding high, fresh off of three consecutive NCAA appearances. Coach Joan Bonvicini was looking forward to challenging for the Pac-10 title and making a run deep into March. But then on Sept. 25, 2006, all-American Shawntinice Polk died suddenly and the Wildcats haven’t recovered. This year, in preparation for her 17th year at Arizona, Bonvicini took her charges on a tour of Italy in hopes of regaining focus and reestablishing the U of A program.

In the backcourt, the Wildcats return seniors Ashley Whisonant and Jessica Arnold as well as junior Malia O’Neal, all of whom started more than 10 games last year. Whisonant averaged 11.9 points and 3.6 assists per game. All three had turnover problems, however, with assist/turnover ratios of 1.0 to 1.3. If Arizona is going to improve this season, the Wildcats will have to protect the ball better. They also add transfer senior Erin O’Bryan from UCSB, an Arizona native who’s a three-point specialist.

In the frontcourt, Rhaya and Rheya Neabors, sophomores from Southern California, should team with 6-1 junior Amina Njonkou from Cameroon to provide a formidable front line. Njonkou averaged 8.4 ppg and 6.7 rpg last season. Rhaya played 23.8 mpg and averaged 3.7 ppg and 2.7 rpg. Rheya was actually more highly regarded out of high school, but a foot injury slowed her progress in her freshman year.

Keeping with the sister theme, Arizona brings Beatrice Bofia, a 6-7 center from the Cameroon, onto the roster. She replaces her sister Suzy who is out this season expecting a child.

Even without Joy Hollingsworth from last year, the talent is good enough for the Wildcats to get up to the middle of the pack in the Pac-10. Arizona opens its season with three games in three days at the WBCA /Basketball Travelers Classic at Penn State. In addition to the host school, the Wildcats play Pittsburgh and UNC Charlotte.

8. Oregon (17-14, 8-10): Bev Smith opens her seventh season with a very young team, and one that will have to grow up fast if it is to equal last year’s record. A more reasonable goal would be to get to .500, and even that will likely take an 8-3 conference mark.

The backcourt is solid with 5-8 junior Tamika Nurse, 5-10 senior Kaela Chapdelaine, and sophomores Taylor Lilley and Micaela Cocks all returning. Nurse led the Ducks with 34 mpg, and averaged 9.2 ppg and 3.3 rpg. Chapdelaine led the team with 3.5 assists and 1.6 steals per game. Lilley was the most prolific three-point shooter, hitting on 51% of her shots behind the arc.

The frontcourt is another story. There is not a single player who has scored in a college game. Nicole Canepa, a 6-5 forward from San Francisco, will compete with three players from Down Under for playing time. Whether any of them can step up will determine whether the Ducks can move up the Pac-10 ladder this season.

Key non-conference game: Nov. 20 at home vs. Marquette.

9. Oregon State (9-19, 4-14): LaVonda Wagner begins her third season at Corvallis with the same old problem: not enough talent. Casey Nash is gone, and along with her goes the only explosive talent the Beavers had.

The backcourt may be serviceable. Ashley Allen, a 5-10 senior, and Mercedes Fox-Griffin, a 5-7 junior, both return as starters. Fox-Griffin averaged 9.5 ppg and 6.4 apg while playing more than 38 mpg. They will likely be joined by 5-10 junior transfer (from Minnesota) Brittney Davis.

In the frontcourt, 6-1 sophomore Stacey Nichols started all 28 games as a freshman, but scored only 1.7 ppg. Tiffany Ducker returns after taking last season off for the birth of a baby. Ducker is a defensive presence who averaged 6.9 ppg and 6.6 rpg as a sophomore in 2005-06.

There is nothing wrong with this team per se, but the talent is much more in keeping with the West Coast Conference than the Pac-10. The Beavers have a very weak non-conference schedule so they may be able to run up some early wins, but any improvement on their four conference wins would have to be considered a solid season.

10. Washington State (5-24, 1-17): After being unceremoniously dumped by the Washington Huskies, June Daugherty moved herself to Pullman where her 57% winning percentage would be nothing short of miraculous. Her immediate goal must be to lift the Cougars out of last place in the Pac-10, but even that would be a major accomplishment this season. But if nothing else, the hiring of Daugherty revives hope on the Palouse that a change may be coming.

The Cougars have no seniors but return three starters from last year’s squad, including 5-8 junior guard Katie Appleton, 5-9 sophomore Colleen Betteridge and 6-4 junior center Ebonee Coates. Nakejia Kelly also returns and although the 5-7 sophomore guard only started two games last season, she averaged 7.6 ppg in only 17.8 mpg. Freshman Katie Calderwood, a 6-0 forward from Colorado, should also see significant playing time for the Cougars.

Washington State won’t experience the thrill of victory often this season, but if the Cougars can do so on Jan. 4 when the Huskies come to town, the year will be a success.