Sure, Seattle was 2-1, and won the last game 111-101, but both the losses were in Seattle, and that last one was the third of a four-game road trip for the Mercury. And the one Phoenix win, in Phoenix, came after a six-day layoff for the Storm, who certainly couldn’t cite fatigue as an issue.
Yes, the Mercury had trouble matching up with Lauren Jackson, but you know, you could say that about every team in the league. And the Storm are going to have their own matchup issues, as the following analysis will show.
Phoenix was 23-11 for a reason, after all, and Seattle did have to win its last two games to get to .500, despite losing just 13 starter games to injury on the season (Tamika Catchings missed 13 all by herself). Still, the three-game format, with the first game on the road for the higher seed, does tend to even things out, and it only takes one bad game, or sometimes one bad call, to turn a series around.
Point guard: Since Sue Bird is the anointed point for USA Basketball, and everybody loves her for her cute smile, UConn background and championship rings (the Huskies and the Storm), this would be seem to be a no-brainer advantage for Seattle. But if you believe in statistics, Kelly Miller is a better player – and if you believe in defensive reputation, Miller is better there too. Granted, Bird has a slightly better assist/turnover ratio, and is a slightly better scorer (10.4 ppg to 9.4), but Miller has a better overall shooting percentage, a better three-point shooting percentage, and is a far superior rebounder (4.9 rpg to 2.0). Miller is faster, bigger, stronger and isn’t afraid to penetrate and get to the free-throw line (82 attempts to almost invisible 26 for Bird, less than one a game). And, again, Miller can defend, and Bird simply doesn’t. Advantage: Phoenix, which leads to the question: Why isn’t Miller on the national team instead of Bird?
Shooting guard: Betty Lennox and Cappie Pondexter are very similar players. Both are somewhat undersized for the two, but both are extremely athletic and are two of the few players in the league who can get a shot, by themselves, almost any time they want. Neither are defensive stalwarts, and though Lennox has 48 more rebounds and seven more steals (in 29 fewer minutes), Pondexter has 31 more assists and 22 fewer turnovers. One difference, though, is consistency. Lennox has scored in single digits 11 times this season, and Pondexter only four (and has been in double figures the last 11 games). That explains the 3.8 extra points per game for Pondexter (17.2 to 13.4), and the advantage: Phoenix in this category.
Small forward: As with the Bird-Miller comparison, the Diana Taurasi-Iziane Castro Marques matchup seems like an obvious edge for Phoenix – and, in fact, it is. Taurasi’s statistical advantage is enormous (19.2 ppg to 12.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg to 2.8 rpg, 4.3 apg to 2.8 apg, 1.1 bpg to .1 bpg), but it’s even more pronounced in the fourth quarter, when Taurasi has delivered 144 points in 245 minutes while Castro Marques has 66 in 213 (and is shooting 19.4% from three-point distance). And Taurasi has scored 20 points or more in six of her last eight games; Castro Marques, in her best stretch of the season, has done so three of the last eight. Advantage: Phoenix.
Power forward: Lauren Jackson is the best player in the world, which means Seattle wins this matchup no matter who the Storm are playing. But Penny Taylor, a sister Australian, was the MVP of the World Championships while playing alongside Jackson, and has had a tremendous season as well. Taylor scored 17.8 ppg on 49.9% shooting (37.8% from beyond the arc, 88.4% from the line), grabbed 6.3 rpg, handed out 2.9 apg and added 1.5 spg. Hard to beat, right? Jackson is better in every category but free throw percentage (a dismal 88.3%), assists and steals – but she makes up for it with 2.0 bpg and fewer fouls. Yes, the advantage belongs to Seattle, but not by as much as you might think.
Center: Janell Burse is out, and what might have been a Seattle edge has evaporated. Though Tangela Smith didn’t have a great season (12.6 ppg on 41.4% shooting), she’s a whole lot better than Ashley Robinson, who finished yet another season with more fouls (57) than points (48). Robinson, not surprisingly, is an awful shooter for someone who’s 6-5 (34.9%), and her four for 15 from the foul line (26.7%) makes her even more of a liability. Smith is a solid WNBA player (6.5 rpg, 1.7 bpg, 1.2 spg) and she’s a whole lot better than Robinson. Big advantage: Phoenix.
Coach: My lack of respect for Donovan’s coaching ability has been documented elsewhere, so I won’t go into details again, but even if Donovan were an average WNBA coach, she’d be overmatched by the 68-year-old Westhead, who has shaped the Mercury into the best team in the West with his uptempo system and shifting 3-2 zone. No comparison here: advantage: Phoenix.
Bench: Another Donovan issue is her inability to develop talent, and as general manager, she has built a team with no bench – and now that Robinson is starting, it’s even thinner. Tanisha Wright, for reasons unclear to many, is the backup point guard (1.2 assist/turnover ratio) and veteran Wendy Palmer has been a distinct disappointment (4.6 ppg, 41.7% shooting), as has first-round draft pick Katie Gearlds (though she did have a big game against Phoenix in the 111-101 win Aug. 7). That said, the Mercury bench is far from phenomenal. Kelly Mazzante has had some good moments, and Kelly Schumacher has supplied occasional frontcourt support, but neither can be counted on, and no one else has done much. Even so, slight advantage: Phoenix.
Intangibles: Seattle’s players were critical of Donovan’s leadership early in the season, and the Storm’s last two road games were 21-point (Minnesota) and 27-point (Detroit) losses. This does not bode well for the two games in Phoenix, and the Mercury are 11-6 on the road – not to mention the five-game winning streak and nine out of the last ten for the West’s best team. Advantage: Phoenix.
In conclusion: If Lauren Jackson goes absolutely bonkers for two of these three games, scoring 30+ points and dominating both ends of the court, Seattle can win the series. And Jackson, fiery competitor that she is, is quite capable of doing just that. The odds, however, say she’ll probably reach those heights only once, and even then it may not be enough. If Janell Burse was available, things would be different, but she’s not – and Phoenix sweeps.