It's 'Who?' vs. 'What?' in the title game

It was supposed to be Tennessee and LSU, at least according to this august publication (and quite a few others). Or maybe Stanford or UConn. At the start of the season, Texas was expected to be in the mix.

I had Baylor tenth in preseason for Street & Smith's, and Michigan State 12th, though I noted that if the Spartans improved their ballhandling (which they did), the ranking was probably too low. By 'too low,' though, I meant five or six spots. I did not foresee Joanne P. McCallie taking MSU to the title game (especially when they were down 16 with 14:13 left Sunday), nor did I think Baylor would get past Texas and Texas to win the Big XII, much less be in Indianapolis in April as anything other than ticket-buying fans.

That, however, is why they play the games, which Sunday were both quite good. The championship promises to be pretty good too, but the question of how many people will watch hangs in the air. With no Pat Summitt, no Geno Auriemma, no Diana Taurasi, no Lindsay Whalen, what compelling storyline will get viewers to flick on ESPN at 8:30 EDT?

Given what's happened so far, the storyline will probably involve a comeback, a dramatic star turn by a roleplayer and crucial free throws down the stretch. But looking back on how the prognosticators have done so far, we'll most likely wind up with a 20-point rout.

Point guard: Kristin Haynie failed to continue her Lindsay Whalen imitation in the semifinal, struggling for most of the game (two of seven from the field, seven turnovers). But Haynie did get the critical steal with less than a minute to go, and had seven assists and nine rebounds for the night. Chelsea Whitaker was equally ineffective as a shooter and had fewer rebounds (six) and assists (three). She did, however, only have two turnovers and played solid defense. On the season, Haynie was the better player in every measurable aspect of the game, and even on a bad night, she still slightly outplayed Whitaker. Edge: Michigan State.

Shooting guard: Lindsay Bowen once again proved high school rankings mean nothing as she was much better than heralded recruit Shanna Zolman from start to finish, winding up with 18 points on six of 13 shooting (four of seven from beyond the arc). Chameka Scott returned to normalcy against LSU after a huge game against North Carolina, but is still a better rebounder and defender than Bowen. She also has a sizable height advantage, which pretty much makes this one even.

Small forward: Abiola Wabara and Victoria Lucas-Perry are wildcards. Wabara had played extremely well up until the semifinal game, and then pretty much disappeared -- until she suddenly dominated the TV screen. She had hit a jumper to cut the 47-41 margin to four with 9:45 left; she assisted on Emily Niemann's layup just over a minute later; and converted a natural three-point play to make it 49-48 with 7:58 to go. Three minutes later, another three-point play turned a one-point game into a four-point game, and LSU never got any closer. Lucas-Perry, meanwhile, scored 12 points in the last 6:01, including a couple of dagger-to-the-heart threes, that sparked Michigan State's amazing comeback. Lucas-Perry has been better during the season, but Wabara has been better during the tournament. We wimp out again: Even.

Power forward: Liz Shimek might be Michigan State's best player. She had 14 and 11 Sunday night, on six-of-ten shooting with no turnovers. She's capable with either hand, and has made big shots in each of the last two games. She completely outplayed all-American Shyra Ely, and the difference in their outputs really was the difference in the country. On the other hand, Sophia Young might just be the best college player in the game. There are no apparent holes in her game (21 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, four steals, no turnovers against LSU) and she a spectacular athlete -- long, quick and fast. Shimek is a wonderul player but Young is simply better. Edge: Baylor.

Center: Kelli Roehrig took a pass on the block with less than three minutes to go, MSU down four, and turned around to find no one at all guarding her (it's hard to understand how any defense could lose track of the 6-4, not exactly slender, Roehrig). She promptly missed the layup so badly she didn't draw iron. With 35 seconds to go, Roehrig gently induced 6-5 Tye'sha Fluker to fall down, called for the ball and made a tough turnaround to give the Spartans the lead they never lost. She capped her performance by finally corralling a rebound and quickly outletting it before Tennesse could foul her. Roehrig will again be facing the same kind of smaller quicker posts that bothered her so much against the Volunteers, but she's showed that she's not going to just go away -- and that at 6-4, eventually she'll make her presence felt. Steffanie Blackmon had an awful game against LSU (two of eight from the field, one (?) rebound, four turnovers) but she's a very good player, much more athletic than Roehrig and capable of changing the nature of the game by beating Roehrig down court. She's much more likely to match her season averages of 15.3 and 8.1 than Roehrig is to match hers (13.5 and 7.4). Small edge: Baylor.

Bench: Each team essentially played six players Sunday (Baylor's six totalled 192 of the 200 minutes; Michigan State's 193), and expect the same in the championship. Rene Haynes and Emily Niemann, though, couldn't be much more different players -- except that they're both streaky. Which one will be on? No one knows, which is why this category, though potentially the deciding factor in the game, is even.

Coaching: Kim Mulkey-Robertson and Joanne P. McCallie have both done marvelous jobs building programs and getting them to their first Final Four. It's hard to see this as anything but even.

Offense: As Tennessee showed, Michigan State can be stalled by erasing Kristin Haynie from the offensive equation, but Baylor doesn't have a defensive specialist like Loree Moore on hand. Still, Chelsea Whitaker is a very good athlete and should be able to make Haynie work very hard the entire game. The Volunteers played full-denial defense on Haynie (keeping her defender on her, and not in help) and Baylor may do the same, but Whitaker isn't Moore. Haynie, though, is far from the only weapon, and Roehrig must be accounted for on the block, especially with the smaller Blackmon on her. If Roehrig can score early, and Liz Shimek can get a few buckets on Sophia Young, Michigan State's offense should be effective. Baylor would like to get out and run, leaving Roehrig behind, and also not giving the Spartans time to set up their nasty matchup zone. With only one day to prepare, the Bears are at a bit of a disadvantage against the matchup, so we'll call this a slight edge: Michigan State.

Defense: As mentioned, the matchup zone is hard to attack, and Michigan State plays it every well. Baylor prefers man-to-man, and should be fine in that base defense as long as Blackmon can hold her own against Roehrig (which really depends on whether Whitaker can keep Haynie from getting Roehrig the ball). The 3-2 zone that stifled LSU won't work as well against Michigan State because the Spartans have more shooters, so look for Mulkey-Robertson to go man most of the way, a defense Michigan State is obviously familiar with. Baylor, however, hasn't seen the matchup. Edge: Michigan State.

Intangibles: It's possible that Michigan State's dramatic second-half comeback took more out of the Spartans than Baylor's first-half comeback did out of the Bears. I don't see it, though -- this is even.

In conclusion: If you assume all the categories are worth the same amount, the 3-2-5 breakdown in favor of Michigan State forecasts a close game that the Spartans win. But different categories assume differing levels of importance depending on the flow of the game, the officiating and who gets hot (and who doesn't). But in this one, the game is going to be decided by the best player on the floor, and that's Sophia Young. Michigan State has no answer for her, and so Baylor is the answer to the question 'Who's the 2005 NCAA champion?'

4/4/05